The following lists only preprints without a corresponding final revised paper.
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04 Apr 2025
Spatiotemporal variation of growth-stage specific concurrent climate extremes and their yield impacts for rice in southern China
Ran Sun, Tao Ye, Yiqing Liu, Weihang Liu, and Shuo Chen
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1393, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1393, 2025
Preprint under review for ESD (discussion: open, 0 comments)
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Climate change is intensifying extreme weather threats to rice. Our study shows divergent spatial distribution patterns yet increasing temporal trends of concurrent events for rice. Heat stress dominated heat-drought events, while chilling and rain jointly dominated chilling-rainy events. Both event types caused similar yield losses. Ignoring stage-specific risks and local challenges heightens vulnerability. These insights help policymakers prioritize adaptive actions to protect rice crops.
28 Mar 2025
Vegetation and fire regimes in the Neotropics over the last 21,000 years
Thomas Kenji Akabane, Cristiano Mazur Chiessi, Paulo Eduardo De Oliveira, Jennifer Watling, Ana Carolina Carnaval, Vincent Hanquiez, Dailson José Bertassoli Jr., Thaís Aparecida Silva, Marília H. Shimizu, and Anne-Laure Daniau
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1424, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1424, 2025
Preprint under review for ESD (discussion: open, 0 comments)
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Vegetation and fire regimes have changed over the last 21,000 years. Here, we compile pollen and charcoal records from the Neotropics to assess tree cover and fire activity trajectories and identify their main controls. We found that landscapes were shaped by an interplay of temperature, atmospheric CO2, precipitation, vegetation-fire feedback, and human impacts. These drivers varied in importance across regions and time periods, leading to distinct responses under different boundary conditions.
28 Mar 2025
A new biogeochemical modelling framework (FLaMe v1.0) for lake methane emissions on the regional scale: Development and application to the European domain
Manon Maisonnier, Maoyuan Feng, David Bastviken, Sandra Arndt, Ronny Lauerwald, Aidin Jabbari, Goulven Gildas Laruelle, Murray D. MacKay, Zeli Tan, Wim Thiery, and Pierre Regnier
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1306, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1306, 2025
Preprint under review for ESD (discussion: open, 0 comments)
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A new process-based modelling framework, FLaMe v1.0 (Fluxes of Lake Methane version 1.0), is developed to simulate methane (CH4) emissions from lakes at large scales. FLaMe couples the dynamics of organic carbon, oxygen and methane in lakes and rests on an innovative, computationally efficient lake clustering approach for the simulation of CH4 emissions across a large number of lakes. The model evaluation suggests that FLaMe captures the sub-annual and spatial variability of CH4 emissions well.
27 Mar 2025
Multi-decadal initialized climate predictions using the EC-Earth3 global climate model
Rashed Mahmood, Markus G. Donat, Roberto Bilbao, Pablo Ortega, Vladimir Lapin, Etienne Tourigny, and Francisco Doblas-Reyes
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1208, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1208, 2025
Preprint under review for ESD (discussion: open, 0 comments)
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We present 30 year long initialized climate predictions run with the EC-Earth3 model. The predictions show high skill in most regions for near-surface temperatures, with some added skill from initialization for the first decade, but only very limited added skill beyond. The predictions exhibit drift associated with a persistent slowdown in Atlantic Meridonial Overturning Circulation , leaving the initialised predictions in a different climate state than the historical climate simulations.
26 Mar 2025
Multi-annual predictions of hot, dry and hot-dry compound extremes
Alvise Aranyossy, Paolo De Luca, Carlos Delgado-Torres, Balakrishnan Solaraju-Murali, Margarida Samso Cabre, and Markus Gabriel Donat
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-940, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-940, 2025
Preprint under review for ESD (discussion: open, 0 comments)
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We investigate multi-year predictability of hot-dry compound events, and their univariate hot and dry contributions, using the CMIP6 multi-model decadal hindcast experiments, focusing on the forecast years 2–5. We find that hot-dry compound extremes and hot extremes are skillfully predicted in many regions, but lower skill is found for dry extremes. The skill is largely due to long-term trends in response to external forcing, while the added skill from initialisation is limited to a few regions.
25 Mar 2025
Storylines of Future Drought in the Face of Uncertain Rainfall Projections: a New Zealand Case Study
Hamish Lewis, Luke J. Harrington, Peter B. Gibson, and Neelesh Rampal
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1247, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1247, 2025
Preprint under review for ESD (discussion: open, 0 comments)
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Global temperatures will continue to increase over twenty-first century; in contrast to rainfall, where the sign of change is unknown in some regions, such as New Zealand. These uncertain rainfall projections have great implications for future drought. In a wetter future, the increases in rainfall offset some of the temperature induced drying, leading to a small increase in drought severity. In a drier future the reduction in rainfall exacerbates the drying due to increasing temperatures.
21 Mar 2025
Physics of AMOC multistable regime shifts due to freshwater biases in an EMIC
Amber A. Boot and Henk A. Dijkstra
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-758, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-758, 2025
Preprint under review for ESD (discussion: open, 0 comments)
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The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is a tipping element in the Earth System that affects the global climate. We often use models to understand how the AMOC tips. However, these models are flawed. Here we study the effect of these flaws on the AMOC multistable regime in a climate model. We artificially add additional flaws to the model. We find that AMOC stability can be affected by such flaws and a reductionof such flaws in climate models is therefore thought to be essential.
17 Mar 2025
Evaluating biogeophysical sensitivities to idealized deforestation in CMIP6 models using observational constraints
Nikolina Mileva, Julia Pongratz, Vivek K. Arora, Akihiko Ito, Sebastiaan Luyssaert, Sonali S. McDermid, Paul A. Miller, Daniele Peano, Roland Séférian, Yanwu Zhang, and Wolfgang Buermann
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-979, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-979, 2025
Preprint under review for ESD (discussion: open, 0 comments)
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Despite forests being so important for mitigating climate change, there are still uncertainties about how much the changes in forest cover contribute to the cooling/warming of the climate. Climate models and real-world observations often disagree about the magnitude and even the direction of these changes. We constrain climate models scenarios of widespread deforestation with satellite and in-situ data and show that models still have difficulties representing the movement of heat and water.
17 Mar 2025
ESD Ideas: Extended net zero simulations are critical for informed decision making
Andrew D. King, Nerilie J. Abram, Eduardo Alastrué de Asenjo, and Tilo Ziehn
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-903, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-903, 2025
Preprint under review for ESD (discussion: open, 0 comments)
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It is vital that climate changes under net zero emissions are well understood to support decision making processes. Current modelling efforts are insufficient, partly due to limited simulation lengths. We propose a framework for 1000-year-long simulations that attempts to minimise computing resources by leveraging existing simulations. This will ultimately increase understanding of the implications of current climate policies for the Earth System over coming decades and centuries.
27 Feb 2025
CMIP6 Multi-model Assessment of Northeast Atlantic and German Bight Storm Activity
Daniel Krieger and Ralf Weisse
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-111, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-111, 2025
Preprint under review for ESD (discussion: open, 1 comment)
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We analyze storms over the Northeast Atlantic Ocean and the German Bight and how their statistics change over past, present, and future. We look at data from many different climate model runs that cover a variety of possible future climate states. We find that storms are generally predicted to be weaker in the future, even though the wind directions that typically happen during storms occur more frequently. We also find that the most extreme storms may become more likely than nowadays.
24 Feb 2025
Critique of 'Lotka's wheel and the long arm of history': Best available historical data shows major differences pre-1970, raising new questions
Brian P. Hanley
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-699, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-699, 2025
Preprint under review for ESD (discussion: open, 12 comments)
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A critique of Lotka's wheel and the long arm of history: First, the proposition that real gross domestic product (GDP) should go to zero in a steady-state economy is falsified. Second, the hypothesis that "the long arm of history" influences the present is shown to be more complex over the past 2000 years than initially presented. Further work on this hypothesis may yield important results for the relation of monetary value to energy. Of interest to economists, anthropologists, & archeologists.
18 Feb 2025
Joint evolution of irrigation, the water cycle and water resources under a strong climate change scenario from 1950 to 2100 in the IPSL-CM6
Pedro Felipe Arboleda-Obando, Agnès Ducharne, Frédérique Cheruy, and Josefine Ghattas
Earth Syst. Dynam. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2024-41, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2024-41, 2025
Preprint under review for ESD (discussion: open, 0 comments)
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The evolution of irrigation under climate change is analyzed between 1950 and 2100. Results indicate that the influence of irrigation on evapotranspiration in irrigated areas increases in the future (compared to an historical period). Also, the effect of irrigation on water resources is also higher in the future than in the historical period. Finally, we identify areas where future hydroclimate conditions can limit irrigation, or areas where irrigation can increase tensions around water use.
11 Feb 2025
Sensitivity of winter Arctic amplification in NorESM2
Lise Seland Graff, Jerry Tjiputra, Ada Gjermundsen, Andreas Born, Jens Boldingh Debernard, Heiko Goelzer, Yan-Chun He, Petra Margaretha Langebroek, Aleksi Nummelin, Dirk Olivié, Øyvind Seland, Trude Storelvmo, Mats Bentsen, Chuncheng Guo, Andrea Rosendahl, Dandan Tao, Thomas Toniazzo, Camille Li, Stephen Outten, and Michael Schulz
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-472, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-472, 2025
Preprint under review for ESD (discussion: open, 1 comment)
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The magnitude of future Arctic amplification is highly uncertain. Using the Norwegian Earth system model, we explore the effect of improving the representation of clouds, ocean eddies, the Greenland ice sheet, sea ice, and ozone on the projected Arctic winter warming in a coordinated experiment set. These improvements all lead to enhanced projected Arctic warming, with the largest changes found in the sea-ice retreat regions and the largest uncertainty on the Atlantic side.
10 Feb 2025
Seamless seasonal to multi-annual predictions of temperature and standardized precipitation index by constraining transient climate model simulations
Juan C. Acosta Navarro, Alvise Aranyossy, Paolo De Luca, Markus G. Donat, Arthur Hrast Essenfelder, Rashed Mahmood, Andrea Toreti, and Danila Volpi
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-319, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-319, 2025
Preprint under review for ESD (discussion: final response, 2 comments)
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A computationally inexpensive climate model analog method yields skillful climate predictions across timescales, from seasons to multiple years, complementing existing climate prediction systems and potentially providing valuable information for sectors like agriculture and energy.
10 Feb 2025
AR6 updates to RF by GHGs and aerosols lowers the probability of accomplishing the Paris Agreement compared to AR5 formulations
Endre Z. Farago, Laura A. McBride, Austin P. Hope, Timothy P. Canty, Brian F. Bennett, and Ross J. Salawitch
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-342, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-342, 2025
Preprint under review for ESD (discussion: open, 1 comment)
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We use a reduced-complexity climate model trained by observations to compute the future rise in global mean surface temperature (GMST) for radiative forcing (RF) due to greenhouse gases (GHGs) and tropospheric aerosols, provided by the IPCC AR5 and AR6 reports. We show that the AR6 updates to RF lead to a 0.2 to 0.4 °C rise in GMST at the end of this century, for the same underlying Shared Socioeconomic Pathway emissions projections of GHGs and aerosols, relative to GMST found using RF from AR5.
04 Feb 2025
Large scale climate response of the Southern Ocean and Antarctica to reduced ice sheets
Katherine Power, Fernanda Matos, and Qiong Zhang
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-4061, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-4061, 2025
Preprint under review for ESD (discussion: final response, 2 comments)
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This study explores the climate impact of reduced Antarctic and Greenland Ice Sheets using the Late Pliocene as an analogue for future climate. Results reveal a 9.5 °C rise in Antarctic surface temperature, 16 % sea ice loss, and increased precipitation. The simulations highlight weakened Antarctic Bottom Water formation and Southern Annular Mode persistence. By isolating albedo effects, this research provides insights into global climate dynamics and feedbacks.
03 Feb 2025
Evaluating Dynamic Global Vegetation Models in China: Challenges in capturing trends in Leaf Area and Gross Primary Productivity, but effective seasonal variation representation
Anzhou Zhao, Ziyang Li, Lidong Zou, Jianshen Wu, Kayla Stan, and Arturo Sanchez-Azofeif
Earth Syst. Dynam. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2024-44, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2024-44, 2025
Preprint under review for ESD (discussion: open, 1 comment)
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In this context, our study uses reprocessed monthly remote sensing data as observational references to assess the long-term trends and seasonal variations of simulated data by models in China from 2003 to 2019. Our findings reveal that while the DGVMs generally capture the seasonality of LAI and GPP, there are notable discrepancies in their spatial accuracy. Specifically, our results indicate a tendency to underestimate forested areas, overestimate grasslands, and misrepresent cropland dynamics.
03 Feb 2025
Climate change metrics: IPCC AR6 updates, discussions and dynamic assessment applications
Vladimir Zieger, Thibaut Lecompte, Simon Guihéneuf, Yann Guevel, Manuel Bazzana, Thomas Gasser, and Yue He
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3918, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3918, 2025
Preprint under review for ESD (discussion: open, 3 comments)
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Dynamic climate change metrics are more robust to get strong sustainable designs. This work aims to support adoption of such metrics by environmental assessment communities thanks to a: 1. clear and pedagogical presentation of up-to-date climate equations, climate parameters and associated uncertainties, 2. open-source assessment tool release, 3. dynamic metrics interpretation support. Adoption of new characterisation factors for temperature change metrics are recommended in future IPCC report.
27 Jan 2025
Past, Present, and Future Variability of Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation in CMIP6 Ensembles
Arthur Coquereau, Florian Sévellec, Thierry Huck, Joël J.-M. Hirschi, and Quentin Jamet
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-17, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-17, 2025
Revised manuscript under review for ESD (discussion: final response, 4 comments)
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Using statistical methods and a set of ensemble climate models, we decompose the sources of Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) variance. Three distinct phases of physical variability are identified: from 1850 to 1990, internal variability dominates; from 1990 to 2050, dynamical adjustment related to AMOC decline takes over; after 2050, differences between forcing scenarios become dominant. Beyond these physical factors, model variability remains the major source of uncertainty.
24 Jan 2025
Global Stability and Tipping Point Prediction of the Coral Reef Ecosystem
Li Xu, Denis Patterson, Simon Asher Levin, and Jin Wang
External preprint server, https://doi.org/10.1101/2024.12.17.627631, https://doi.org/10.1101/2024.12.17.627631, 2025
Preprint under review for ESD (discussion: open, 2 comments)
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Predicting sudden changes in ecosystems is a major challenge in ecology. Using a new framework called the non-equilibrium landscape and flux theory, we studied how ecosystems shift between stable states. Focusing on coral reefs, we identified early warning signals that detect critical transitions earlier than traditional methods. This approach could help predict catastrophic changes in various ecosystems, offering valuable insights for conservation efforts.
23 Jan 2025
Permafrost response and feedback under temperature stabilization and overshoot scenarios with different global warming levels
Min Cui, Duoying Ji, and Yangxin Chen
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-4100, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-4100, 2025
Revised manuscript under review for ESD (discussion: final response, 4 comments)
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We conducted a study on the long-term effects of northern high-latitude permafrost responses and feedbacks under scenarios where temperatures either stabilize or overshoot. Our findings indicate that the additional warming due to permafrost carbon emissions is significantly greater during the cooling phase of temperature overshoot scenarios. Moreover, we discovered that the sensitivity of permafrost area to global warming is not uniform; it peaks between 1.5 °C and 2 °C.
23 Jan 2025
Limited global effect of climate-Greenland ice sheet coupling in NorESM2 under a high-emission scenario
Konstanze Haubner, Heiko Goelzer, and Andreas Born
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3785, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3785, 2025
Preprint under review for ESD (discussion: final response, 2 comments)
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We add a new dynamic component – an ice sheet model simulating the Greenland ice sheet – to an Earth system model that already captures the global climate evolution including ocean, atmosphere, land and sea ice. Under a strong warming scenario, the global warming of 10 °C over 250 yrs is dominating the climate evolution. Changes from the ice-climate interaction are mainly local yet impacting the evolution of the Greenland ice sheet. Hence, ice-climate feedbacks should be considered beyond 2100.
22 Jan 2025
Dynamic vegetation reveals unavoidable climate feedbacks and their dependence on climate mean state
Pascale Braconnot, Nicolas Viovy, and Olivier Marti
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-4075, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-4075, 2025
Preprint under review for ESD (discussion: open, 1 comment)
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This study highlights how the representation of the vegetation in a climate model triggers the atmospheric feedback controlling the top of the atmosphere radiative fluxes. Using simulations of the mid-Holocene and the preindustrial climates, we analyse cascading effects involving local snow-vegetation interactions, as well as tropical atmospheric water content. The relative roles of bare soil evaporation, photosynthesis and critical temperature for boreal tree regeneration are discussed.
21 Jan 2025
Physical characterization of the boundary separating safe and unsafe AMOC overshoot behaviour
Aurora Faure Ragani and Henk A. Dijkstra
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-45, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-45, 2025
Preprint under review for ESD (discussion: final response, 2 comments)
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The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is sensitive to changing surface forcing conditions. Under future greenhouse gas emission reductions, it was shown in a conceptual model that it may be possible to avoid a collapse of the AMOC. Using a detailed global ocean model, we clarify the physics of the collapse and recovery behaviour of the AMOC. The potential to avoid an AMOC collapse is tightly linked to a delicate balance of salt fluxes in the northern North Atlantic.
21 Jan 2025
A Saddle-Node Bifurcation is Causing the AMOC Collapse in the Community Earth System Model
René M. van Westen, Elian Vanderborght, and Henk A. Dijkstra
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-14, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-14, 2025
Preprint under review for ESD (discussion: open, 0 comments)
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The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is a tipping element in the fully-coupled Community Earth System Model (CESM). Under varying freshwater flux forcing parameters or climate change, the AMOC may collapse from a relatively strong state to a substantially weaker state. It is important to understand the dynamics of the AMOC collapse in the CESM. We show that the stability of the AMOC in the CESM is controlled by only a few feedback processes.
21 Jan 2025
ESD Ideas: Cenozoic Ice Volume as a Driver of Geomagnetic Events
Jiasheng Chen
Earth Syst. Dynam. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2024-43, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2024-43, 2025
Manuscript not accepted for further review (discussion: closed, 4 comments)
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This study examines how changes in Earth's ice volume influence geomagnetic events, such as reversals and incomplete reversals, over the past 49 million years. We find that increased ice volume correlates with more frequent geomagnetic events, while rapid ice sheet melting under future warming could reduce their occurrence. These findings enhance our understanding of Earth's magnetic dynamics and their potential link to climate change.
16 Jan 2025
Using Optimization Tools to Explore Stratospheric Aerosol Injection Strategies
Ezra Brody, Yan Zhang, Douglas G. MacMartin, Daniele Visioni, Ben Kravitz, and Ewa M. Bednarz
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3974, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3974, 2025
Preprint under review for ESD (discussion: final response, 2 comments)
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Stratospheric aerosol injection (SAI) is being studied as a possible supplement to emission reduction to temporarily mitigate some of the risks associated with climate change. The latitudes at which SAI is done determine the effect on the climate. We try to find if there are combinations of latitudes that do a better job of counteracting climate change than existing strategies. We found that there are, but just how significant these improvements are depends on the amount of cooling.
13 Jan 2025
Does the pace of carbon emissions matter in an atmospheric general circulation model?
Anja Katzenberger and Anders Levermann
Earth Syst. Dynam. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2024-40, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2024-40, 2025
Preprint under review for ESD (discussion: open, 1 comment)
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There is an ongoing societal discussion about speeding up the transition to net-zero carbon emissions. The faster emissions are reduced, the less carbon dioxide will accumulate in the atmosphere determining the level of global warming. In this study, we run simulations with an atmosphere model with different CO2 forcing rates to investigate whether the pace of the emissions itself (in addition to the resulting concentration) significantly influences climate and weather.
13 Jan 2025
Nitrogen deposition and climate drive plant nitrogen uptake while soil factors drive nitrogen use efficiency in terrestrial ecosystems
Helena Vallicrosa, Katrin Fleischer, Manuel Delgado-Baquerizo, Marcos Fernández-Martínez, Jakub Cerny, Di Tian, Angeliki Kourmouli, Carolina Mayoral, Diego Grados, Mingzhen Lu, and César Terrer
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3661, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3661, 2025
Revised manuscript under review for ESD (discussion: final response, 4 comments)
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We used field empirical data worldwide to calculate plant nitrogen uptake (Nup) and nitrogen use efficiency (NUE) in woodlands and grasslands and determine its drivers, which can be used as empirical validation for models. Even though some regions of the world have decreased their N deposition, N deposition is still the most important driver explaining plant nitrogen uptake, aside from climatic variables.
06 Jan 2025
Eco-evolutionary Modelling of Global Vegetation Dynamics and the Impact of CO2 during the late Quaternary: Insights from Contrasting Periods
Jierong Zhao, Boya Zhou, Sandy P. Harrison, and I. Colin Prentice
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3897, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3897, 2025
Preprint under review for ESD (discussion: open, 2 comments)
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We used eco-evolutionary optimality modelling to examine how climate and CO2 impacted vegetation at the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM, 21,000 years ago) and the mid-Holocene (MH, 6,000 years ago). Low CO2 at the LGM was as important as climate in reducing tree cover and productivity, and increasing C4 plant abundance. Climate had positive effects on MH vegetation, but the low CO2 was a constraint on plant growth. These results show it is important to consider changing CO2 to model ecosystem changes.
03 Jan 2025
Modeling Total Phosphorus Transport in the European Riverine System: Parameterization and Projections under Climate and Socioeconomic Scenarios
Alberto Elizalde, Gibran Romero-Mujalli, Tobias Stacke, and Stefan Hagemann
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3645, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3645, 2025
Preprint under review for ESD (discussion: open, 2 comments)
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This study examines phosphorus land-to-sea transport in Europe, exploring changes over time and predicting future trends under various scenarios. It integrates human and environmental factors, offering a comprehensive analysis. Our findings show how global warming-induced rainfall patterns affect phosphorus levels. While pollution reduction policies are helpful, population growth, land-use changes, and increased rainfall could lead to higher phosphorus levels in the future.
02 Jan 2025
Climate Oscillations influence on GOM Circulation
Gabriel Gallegos D. B. and Alejandro Jose Souza
Earth Syst. Dynam. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2024-38, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2024-38, 2025
Revised manuscript under review for ESD (discussion: final response, 10 comments)
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This article elucidates the atmosphere-ocean interaction and how large-scale climate oscillations like El Niño (ENSO) and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) modulate the structure and behaviour of the circulation in the Gulf of Mexico. Our analysis suggests 4 principal modes, which are coherent with ENSO, the NAO and the Madden-Jullian Oscillation at different frequencies. This result suggests relation between the NAO, ENSO and the Atlantic Overturning Circulation.
16 Dec 2024
Analysis of spatio temporal geophysical data using spatial entropy: application to comparison of SST datasets
Juan Gancio, Giulio Tirabassi, Cristina Masoller, and Marcelo Barreiro
Earth Syst. Dynam. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2024-37, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2024-37, 2024
Manuscript not accepted for further review (discussion: closed, 4 comments)
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We propose the use of the spatial permutation entropy (SPE) as a versatile tool to quantify differences between the sea surface temperature (SST) data set of NOAA OI v2, and the SST used in the ERA5 reanalysis. Focusing on monthly SST anomalies in Niño3.4 region and in the Gulf Stream region, we show that SPE identifies differences in short spatial scales, which vary over time and which can be attributed to the methods and data used to construct SSTs.
09 Dec 2024
The State of Global Catastrophic Risk Research: A Bibliometric Review
Florian Ulrich Jehn, John-Oliver Engler, Constantin W. Arnscheidt, Magdalena Wache, Ekaterina Ilin, Laura Cook, Lalitha S. Sundaram, Frederic Hanusch, and Luke Kemp
External preprint server, https://doi.org/10.31223/X52X4V, https://doi.org/10.31223/X52X4V, 2024
Revised manuscript under review for ESD (discussion: final response, 4 comments)
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Research on global catastrophic risks (GCR) and existential risks (ER) studies global threats like pandemics or nuclear war. Here we present the first systematic bibliometric analysis of the GCR/ER literature. We find that the literature has grown and differentiated considerably over the last 20 years, but the researchers lack geographic and gender diversity. Still, the GCR/ER field has contributed considerably to both understanding and preparation for the largest risks that face humanity.
06 Dec 2024
100-kyr ice age cycles as a timescale matching problem
Takahito Mitsui, Peter Ditlevsen, Niklas Boers, and Michel Crucifix
Earth Syst. Dynam. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2024-39, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2024-39, 2024
Preprint under review for ESD (discussion: open, 7 comments)
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The late Pleistocene glacial cycles are dominated by a 100-kyr periodicity, rather than other major astronomical periods like 19, 23, 41, or 400 kyr. Various models propose distinct mechanisms to explain this, but their diversity may obscure the key factor behind the 100-kyr periodicity. We propose a time-scale matching hypothesis, suggesting that the ice-sheet climate system responds to astronomical forcing at ~100 kyr because its intrinsic timescale is closer to 100 kyr than to other periods.
02 Dec 2024
Inconclusive Early warning signals for Dansgaard-Oeschger events across Greenland ice cores
Clara Hummel, Niklas Boers, and Martin Rypdal
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3567, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3567, 2024
Preprint under review for ESD (discussion: final response, 6 comments)
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We revisit early warning signals (EWS) for past abrupt climate changes known as Dansgaard-Oeschger (DO) events. Using advanced statistical methods, we find fewer significant EWS than previously reported. While some signals appear consistent across Greenland ice core records, they are not enough to identify the still unknown physical mechanisms behind DO events. This study highlights the complexity of predicting climate changes and urges caution in interpreting (paleo-)climate data.
02 Dec 2024
Effect of horizontal resolution in North Atlantic mixing and ocean circulation in the EC-Earth3P HighResMIP simulations
Eneko Martin-Martinez, Amanda Frigola, Eduardo Moreno-Chamarro, Daria Kuznetsova, Saskia Loosveldt-Tomas, Margarida Samsó Cabré, Pierre-Antoine Bretonnière, and Pablo Ortega
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3625, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3625, 2024
Revised manuscript under review for ESD (discussion: final response, 4 comments)
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We investigate the impact of model resolution on different processes in the North Atlantic using three different resolutions of the same climate model. The higher resolutions allow for the explicit simulation of smaller-scale processes. We found differences across resolutions on how denser waters are formed and transported southward impacting the large-scale circulation of the Atlantic Ocean.
29 Nov 2024
Future changes in runoff over western and central Europe: disentangling the hydrological behavior of CMIP6 models
Juliette Deman and Julien Boé
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3225, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3225, 2024
Preprint under review for ESD (discussion: final response, 3 comments)
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This article investigates the large uncertainties in future runoff changes over western and central Europe in projections from global climate models under a high emissions scenario. Two main types of response are identified among the models, with half of them projecting a decrease in annual runoff and the other half showing little or no change. The outlier behavior observed in some models can be largely attributed to changes in large-scale circulation or to the physiological effect of CO2.
27 Nov 2024
Multi-centennial climate change in a warming world beyond 2100
Sun-Seon Lee, Sahil Sharma, Nan Rosenbloom, Keith B. Rodgers, Ji-Eun Kim, Eun Young Kwon, Christian L. E. Franzke, In-Won Kim, Mohanan Geethalekshmi Sreeush, and Karl Stein
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3377, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3377, 2024
Revised manuscript under review for ESD (discussion: final response, 4 comments)
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This study presents a 10-member extension from 2101 to 2500 of the CESM2-LE, under a scenario aiming for zero fossil fuel emissions by 2250. Key findings include a 12 °C warming, a 23.5 % rise in precipitation, and diminished ENSO variability. Substantial carbon release from thawing permafrost will shift land from a carbon sink to a source. The ocean’s CO2 absorption capacity will decline, emphasizing the extensive impacts of long-term climate change on ecosystems and human societies.
19 Nov 2024
Intensity and dynamics of extreme cold spells of the 21st century in France from CMIP6 data
Camille Cadiou and Pascal Yiou
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3473, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3473, 2024
Preprint under review for ESD (discussion: final response, 4 comments)
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Cold extremes significantly affect healthcare and energy systems. Global warming is expected to reduce these extremes. Our study indeed shows that very intense cold spells will become nearly impossible in France by the end of the 21st century for high levels of warming. However, we demonstrate that events as intense as the 1985 cold spell in France may still occur in the near future. These events are linked to specific atmospheric patterns that bring cold air from high latitudes into Europe.
30 Oct 2024
Future changes in spatiotemporal precipitation patterns of the East Asian summer monsoon and associated uncertainty factors
Yeon-Hee Kim and Seung-Ki Min
Earth Syst. Dynam. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2024-34, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2024-34, 2024
Revised manuscript under review for ESD (discussion: final response, 6 comments)
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This study evaluated CMIP6 multiple climate models for East Asian summer precipitation and projected its future changes using the spatiotemporal pattern metrics. CMIP6 models better captured observations with reduced biases compared to CMIP5 models. Future projections indicate the overall intensified monsoon band due to the increased moisture availability. Relative importance of atmospheric circulation and moisture change is identified for inter-model and scenario uncertainty, respectively.
29 Oct 2024
Nonlinear causal dependencies as a signature of the complexity of the climate dynamics
Stéphane Vannitsem, X. San Liang, and Carlos A. Pires
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3308, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3308, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for ESD (discussion: final response, 4 comments)
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Large-scale modes of variability are present in the climate system. These modes are known to have influences on each other, but usually viewed as linear influences. The nonlinear connections among a set of key climate indices are here explored using tools from information theory, which allow for characterizing the causality between indices. It is found that quadratic nonlinear dependencies between climate indices are present at low-frequencies, reflecting the complex nature of its dynamics.
29 Oct 2024
Food trade disruption after global catastrophes
Florian Jehn, Łukasz Gajewski, Johanna Hedlund, Constantin Arnscheidt, Lili Xia, Nico Wunderling, and David Denkenberger
External preprint server, https://doi.org/10.31223/X5MQ4R, https://doi.org/10.31223/X5MQ4R, 2024
Preprint under review for ESD (discussion: open, 1 comment)
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The global food trade system can handle small disturbances, but large disasters could cause major disruptions. We looked at how nuclear war or severe infrastructure loss would affect global trade in key crops. Both would be catastrophic, but a nuclear war would cause more severe disruptions, with many countries losing most of their food imports. Both scenarios highlight the need for better preparation to protect global food security.
18 Oct 2024
Water vapour fluxes at a Mediterranean coastal site during the summer of 2021: observations, comparison with atmospheric reanalysis, and implications for extreme events
Fabio Madonna, Benedetto De Rosa, Simone Gagliardi, Ilaria Gandolfi, Yassmina Hesham Essa, Domenico Madonna, Fabrizio Marra, Maria Assunta Menniti, Donato Summa, Emanuele Tramutola, Faezeh Karimian Saracks, Filomena Romano, and Marco Rosoldi
Earth Syst. Dynam. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2024-32, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2024-32, 2024
Revised manuscript under review for ESD (discussion: final response, 4 comments)
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Extreme weather events in the Mediterranean have intensified, and understanding their causes is key to improving forecasts. This study used data from the MESSA-DIN measurement campaign in Soverato, Italy (July–September 2021) to analyze the water vapor fluxes effect in extreme weather events as well as the related ERA5 performances. This study highlights a bias in ERA5 reanalysis humidity and the importance of high-resolution data for improving weather predictions.
15 Oct 2024
ESD Ideas: Climate tipping is not instantaneous – the duration of an overshoot matters
Paul David Longden Ritchie, Chris Huntingford, and Peter Cox
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3023, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3023, 2024
Revised manuscript under review for ESD (discussion: final response, 7 comments)
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Climate Tipping Points are not instantaneous upon crossing critical thresholds in global warming, as is often assumed. Instead, it is possible to temporarily overshoot a threshold without causing tipping, provided the duration of the overshoot is short. In this Idea, we demonstrate that restricting the time over 1.5 °C would considerably reduce tipping point risks.
14 Oct 2024
A causality-based method for multi-model comparison: Application to relationships between atmospheric and marine biogeochemical variables
Germain Bénard, Marion Gehlen, and Mathieu Vrac
Earth Syst. Dynam. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2024-31, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2024-31, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for ESD (discussion: closed, 7 comments)
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We introduce a novel approach to compare Earth System Model output using a causality-based approach. The analysis of interactions between atmospheric, oceanic, and biogeochemical variables in the North Atlantic Subpolar Gyre highlights the dynamics of each model. This method reveals potential underlying causes of model differences, offering a tool for enhanced model evaluation and improved understanding of complex Earth system dynamics under past and future climates.
14 Oct 2024
Diagnosing Aerosol-Meteorological Interactions on Snow within the Earth System: A Proof-of-Concept Study over High Mountain Asia
Chayan Roychoudhury, Cenlin He, Rajesh Kumar, and Avelino F. Arellano Jr.
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2298, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2298, 2024
Revised manuscript under review for ESD (discussion: final response, 4 comments)
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We aim to understand the complexity of Earth's climate by proposing a novel, cost-effective approach to understand the web of interactions driving climate change. We focus on how pollution and weather processes interact and drive snowmelt in Asian glaciers. Our findings reveal significant yet overlooked processes across different climate models. Our approach can help in refining the development of these models for more reliable predictions in climate-vulnerable regions.
10 Oct 2024
Influence of Floodplains and Groundwater Dynamics on the Present-Day Climate simulated by the CNRM Model
Bertrand Decharme and Jeanne Colin
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3091, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3091, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for ESD (discussion: final response, 8 comments)
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Our study uses a global climate model to investigate how groundwater and floodplains influence today's climate. We found that these continental water sources, often overlooked in climate models, can influence precipitation, temperature and land surface hydrology. This research contributes to a better understanding of the dynamics of the Earth system and highlights the importance of considering interactions between hydrology and the atmosphere.
10 Oct 2024
Ensemble design for seasonal climate predictions: Studying extreme Arctic sea ice lows with a rare event algorithm
Jerome Sauer, Francesco Ragone, François Massonnet, and Giuseppe Zappa
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3082, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3082, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for ESD (discussion: final response, 7 comments)
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An obstacle in studying climate extremes is the lack of robust statistics. We use a rare event algorithm to gather robust statistics on extreme Arctic sea ice lows with probabilities below 0.1 % and to study drivers of events with amplitudes larger than observed in 2012. The work highlights that the most extreme sea ice reductions result from the combined effects of preconditioning and weather variability, emphasizing the need for thoughtful ensemble design when turning to real applications.
08 Oct 2024
Quantifying the feedback between Antarctic meltwater release and subsurface Southern Ocean warming
Erwin Lambert, Dewi Le Bars, Eveline van der Linden, André Jüling, and Sybren Drijfhout
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2257, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2257, 2024
Revised manuscript under review for ESD (discussion: final response, 4 comments)
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Ocean warming around Antarctica leads to ice melting and sea-level rise. The meltwater that flows into the surrounding ocean can lead to enhanced warming of the seawater, thereby again increasing melting and sea-level rise. This process, however, is not currently included in climate models. Through a simple mathematical approach, we find that this process can lead to more melting and more sea-level rise, possibly increasing the Antarctic contribution to 21st century sea level rise by 80 %.
02 Oct 2024
Snowball Earth transitions from Last Glacial Maximum conditions provide an independent upper limit on Earth’s climate sensitivity
Martin Renoult, Navjit Sagoo, Johannes Hörner, and Thorsten Mauritsen
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2981, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2981, 2024
Preprint under review for ESD (discussion: final response, 6 comments)
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Geological evidence indicate persistent tropical sea-ice cover in the deep past, often called Snowball Earth. Using a climate model, we show here that clouds substantially cool down the tropics and facilitate the advance of sea-ice into lower latitudes. We identify a critical threshold temperature of 0 °C from where cooling down the Earth is accelerated. This value can be used as a constraint on Earth's sensitivity to CO2, as recent cold paleoclimates never entered Snowball Earth.
23 Sep 2024
Social norms and groups structure safe operating spaces in renewable resource use in a social-ecological multi-layer network model
Max Bechthold, Wolfram Barfuss, André Butz, Jannes Breier, Sara M. Constantino, Jobst Heitzig, Luana Schwarz, Sanam N. Vardag, and Jonathan F. Donges
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2924, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2924, 2024
Revised manuscript under review for ESD (discussion: final response, 6 comments)
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Social norms are a major influence on human behaviour. In natural resource use models, norms are often included in a simplistic way leading to "black or white" sustainability outcomes. We find that a dynamic representation of norms, including social groups, determines more nuanced states of the environment in a stylized model of resource use, while also defining the success of attempts to manage the system, suggesting the importance of well representing both in coupled models.
23 Sep 2024
The visible and hidden climatic effects on Earth's denudation
Ivan Vergara, Fernanda Santibañez, René Garreaud, and Germán Aguilar
Earth Syst. Dynam. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2024-27, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2024-27, 2024
Manuscript not accepted for further review (discussion: closed, 4 comments)
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The denudation rate was modelled in over a thousand basins across the Earth. The results suggest that water and associated life have a positive effect across their whole range, which is regulated by topography. Because of this, bioclimatic effect is weak in flat landscapes, but it could vary denudation forty times in mountain settings. It was also observed that other things being equal, water availability steepens basins, so climate also has an indirect effect acting on geological timeframes.
06 Sep 2024
Constraining uncertainty in projected precipitation over land with causal discovery
Kevin Debeire, Lisa Bock, Peer Nowack, Jakob Runge, and Veronika Eyring
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2656, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2656, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for ESD (discussion: final response, 4 comments)
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This study introduces a new method to reduce uncertainty in climate model projections of future precipitation patterns over land. By using advanced causal discovery techniques, our approach improves the reliability of precipitation projections under different global warming scenarios, supporting the development of more effective strategies to address the impacts of climate change.
05 Sep 2024
Change in negative emission burden between an overshoot versus peak-shaved Stratospheric Aerosol Injections pathway
Susanne Baur, Benjamin M. Sanderson, Roland Séférian, and Laurent Terray
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2344, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2344, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for ESD (discussion: final response, 4 comments)
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Stratospheric Aerosol Injections (SAI) could be used alongside mitigation to reduce global warming. Previous studies suggest that more atmospheric CO2 is taken up when SAI is deployed. Here we look at the entire trajectory of SAI deployment from initialization to after termination and show how the initial carbon uptake benefit and therefore lower negative emission burden is reduced in later stages of SAI where it turns into an additional burden to compensate for reduced natural carbon uptake.
02 Sep 2024
Global relevance of atmospheric and land surface drivers for hot temperature extremes
Yigit Uckan, Melissa Ruiz-Vásquez, Kelley De Polt, and René Orth
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2540, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2540, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for ESD (discussion: final response, 8 comments)
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Drivers of hot extremes are not well known on a global scale. Here, we show the global distribution and relevance of these drivers. Our results show that atmospheric circulation is the most critical driver of hot extremes, particularly in the mid-latitudes. Land surface factors, such as vegetation and radiation, are important in tropical and semi-arid regions. Understanding the relative contributions of atmospheric and land surface drivers of hot extremes can help improve predictions.
28 Aug 2024
Estimating lateral nitrogen transfer through the global river network using a land surface model
Minna Ma, Haicheng Zhang, Ronny Lauerwald, Philippe Ciais, and Pierre Regnier
Earth Syst. Dynam. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2024-29, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2024-29, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for ESD (discussion: closed, 4 comments)
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A new model (ORCHIDEE-NLAT) was developed to estimate lateral nitrogen (N) transport from land to oceans through rivers at daily step. The model includes transport of water and N, as well as the decomposition of dissolved organic N and particulate organic, and denitrification of dissolved inorganic N. Model evaluations indicate that ORCHIDEE-NLAT reproduce observed rates and seasonal variations of water discharge and total N flow well.
27 Aug 2024
Biogeochemical versus biogeophysical temperature effects of historical land-use change in CMIP6
Amali A. Amali, Clemens Schwingshackl, Akihiko Ito, Alina Barbu, Christine Delire, Daniele Peano, David M. Lawrence, David Wårlind, Eddy Robertson, Edouard L. Davin, Elena Shevliakova, Ian N. Harman, Nicolas Vuichard, Paul A. Miller, Peter J. Lawrence, Tilo Ziehn, Tomohiro Hajima, Victor Brovkin, Yanwu Zhang, Vivek K. Arora, and Julia Pongratz
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2460, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2460, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for ESD (discussion: final response, 4 comments)
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Our study explored the impact of anthropogenic land-use change (LUC) on climate dynamics, focusing on biogeophysical (BGP) and biogeochemical (BGC) effects using data from the CMIP6-LUMIP project. We found that LUC-induced carbon emissions contribute to a BGC warming of 0.20 °C, with BGC effects dominating globally over BGP effects, which show regional variability. Our findings highlight discrepancies in model simulations and emphasise the need for improved representations of LUC processes.
19 Aug 2024
Future land-use pattern projections and their differences within the ISIMIP3b framework
Edna Johanna Molina Bacca, Miodrag Stevanović, Benjamin Leon Bodirsky, Jonathan C. Doelman, Louise Parsons Chini, Jan Volkholz, Katja Frieler, Christopher Reyer, George Hurtt, Florian Humpenöder, Kristine Karstens, Jens Heinke, Christoph Müller, Jan Philipp Dietrich, Hermann Lotze-Campen, Elke Stehfest, and Alexander Popp
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2441, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2441, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for ESD (discussion: final response, 6 comments)
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Land-use change projections are vital for impact studies. This study compares updated land-use model projections, including CO2 fertilization among other upgrades, from the MAgPIE and IMAGE models under three scenarios, highlighting differences, uncertainty hotspots, and harmonization effects. Key findings include reduced bioenergy crop demand projections and differences in grassland area allocation and sizes, with socioeconomic-climate scenarios' largest effect on variance starting in 2030.
09 Aug 2024
Earth’s future climate and its variability simulated at 9 km global resolution
Ja-Yeon Moon, Jan Streffing, Sun-Seon Lee, Tido Semmler, Miguel Andrés-Martínez, Jiao Chen, Eun-Byeoul Cho, Jung-Eun Chu, Christian Franzke, Jan P. Gärtner, Rohit Ghosh, Jan Hegewald, Songyee Hong, Nikolay Koldunov, June-Yi Lee, Zihao Lin, Chao Liu, Svetlana Loza, Wonsun Park, Woncheol Roh, Dmitry V. Sein, Sahil Sharma, Dmitry Sidorenko, Jun-Hyeok Son, Malte F. Stuecker, Qiang Wang, Gyuseok Yi, Martina Zapponini, Thomas Jung, and Axel Timmermann
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2491, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2491, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for ESD (discussion: final response, 4 comments)
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Based on a series of storm-resolving greenhouse warming simulations conducted with the AWI-CM3 model at 9 km global atmosphere, 4–25 km ocean resolution, we present new projections of regional climate change, modes of climate variability and extreme events. The 10-year-long high resolution simulations for the 2000s, 2030s, 2060s, 2090s were initialized from a coarser resolution transient run (31 km atmosphere) which follows the SSP5-8.5 greenhouse gas emission scenario from 1950–2100 CE.
05 Aug 2024
Remote carbon cycle changes are overlooked impacts of land-cover and land management changes
Suqi Guo, Felix Havermann, Steven J. De Hertog, Fei Luo, Iris Manola, Thomas Raddatz, Hongmei Li, Wim Thiery, Quentin Lejeune, Carl-Friedrich Schleussner, David Wårlind, Lars Nieradzik, and Julia Pongratz
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2387, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2387, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for ESD (discussion: final response, 4 comments)
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Land-cover and land management changes (LCLMCs) can alter climate even in intact areas, causing carbon changes in remote areas. This study is the first to assess these effects, finding they substantially alter global carbon dynamics, changing terrestrial stocks by up to dozens of gigatons. These results are vital for scientific and policy assessments, given the expected role of LCLMCs in achieving the Paris Agreement’s goal to limit global warming below 1.5 °C.
26 Jul 2024
Concurrent modes of climate variability linked to spatially compounding wind and precipitation extremes in the Northern Hemisphere
Bastien François, Khalil Teber, Lou Brett, Richard Leeding, Luis Gimeno-Sotelo, Daniela I. V. Domeisen, Laura Suarez-Gutierrez, and Emanuele Bevacqua
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2079, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2079, 2024
Revised manuscript under review for ESD (discussion: final response, 6 comments)
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Spatially compounding wind and precipitation (CWP) extremes can lead to severe impacts on society. We find that concurrent climate variability modes favor the occurrence of such wintertime spatially compounding events in the Northern Hemisphere, and can even amplify the number of regions and population exposed. Our analysis highlights the importance of considering the interplay between variability modes to improve risk management of such spatially compounding events.
25 Jul 2024
ESD Ideas: Near real-time preliminary detection of carbon dioxide source and sink areas using a Laplacian filter
Yana Savytska, Viktor Smolii, and Nils Weitzel
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1981, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1981, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for ESD (discussion: final response, 4 comments)
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In recent decades, we have witnessed abnormally hot summers and frequent weather extremes globally. These are clear signs of global warming and climate change. A constant increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) is a major driver of these changes. We propose an algorithm for near-real-time detection of terrestrial areas with CO2 sources and sinks. This algorithm could aid in developing new methods of natural CO2 reduction and exploring ecosystem responses to disturbances.
19 Jul 2024
Uncertainty quantification for overshoots of tipping thresholds
Kerstin Monika Lux-Gottschalk and Paul David Longden Ritchie
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2170, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2170, 2024
Preprint under review for ESD (discussion: final response, 6 comments)
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For tipping points at low levels of global warming, overshoots of the threshold are becoming increasingly likely. Importantly, for some systems, tipping can still be avoided provided the forcing is reversed sufficiently quickly. Conditions for a mitigation window, that would avoid tipping, depend on system uncertainties. We highlight the need to account for uncertainty in the threshold location and other system features when designing climate mitigation strategies that avoid tipping.
18 Jul 2024
A climate suitability index for ecological habitats applied to terrestrial arthropods in the Mediterranean Region
James M. Ciarlò, Monique Borg Inguanez, Erika Coppola, Aaron Micallef, and David Mifsud
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1954, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1954, 2024
Revised manuscript under review for ESD (discussion: final response, 4 comments)
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Climate change threatens biodiversity, especially arthropods, which can significantly impact the stability of ecosystems. This study introduces an index to assess habitat suitability for Mediterranean arthropods using climate model data. The index can indicate how climate change could affect arthropod habitats, provided there is an abundant initial dataset of observations for the species of interest.
17 Jul 2024
Paleogeographic numerical modelling of marginal seas for the Holocene – an exemplary study of the Baltic Sea
Jakub Miluch, Wenyan Zhang, Jan Harff, Andreas Groh, Peter Arlinghaus, and Celine Denker
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1931, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1931, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for ESD (discussion: final response, 8 comments)
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We present a high-resolution paleogeographic reconstruction of the Baltic Sea for the Holocene period by combining eustatic sea-level change, glacio-isostatic movement, and sediment dynamics. In the north-eastern part, morphological change is dominated by regression caused by post-glacial rebound that outpaces the eustatic sea level rise, whereas a transgression together with active sediment erosion/deposition constantly shape the coastal morphology in the south-eastern part.
10 Jul 2024
Simple physics-based adjustments reconcile the results of Eulerian and Lagrangian techniques for moisture tracking
Alfredo Crespo-Otero, Damián Insua-Costa, Emilio Hernández-García, Cristóbal López, and Gonzalo Míguez-Macho
Earth Syst. Dynam. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2024-18, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2024-18, 2024
Revised manuscript under review for ESD (discussion: final response, 4 comments)
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We evaluated two Lagrangian moisture tracking tools, WaterSip and UTrack, and compared them against the WRF model with Water Vapor Tracers. Our results show that UTrack, which relies on evaporation and precipitable water data, has a slightly better agreement with WRF-WVTs than WaterSip, based on specific humidity data. Implementing simple physics-based changes substantially improved both methodologies, reducing discrepancies by about 50 % and narrowing the the disparities among all approaches.
27 Jun 2024
Leveraging the satellite-based climate data record CLARA-A3 to understand trends and climate regimes relevant for solar energy applications over Europe
Abhay Devasthale, Sandra Andersson, Erik Engström, Frank Kaspar, Jörg Trentmann, Anke Duguay-Tetzlaff, Jan Fokke Meirink, Erik Kjellström, Tomas Landelius, Manu Anna Thomas, and Karl-Göran Karlsson
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1805, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1805, 2024
Preprint under review for ESD (discussion: final response, 2 comments)
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Using the satellite-based climate data record CLARA-A3 spanning 1982–2020 and ERA5 reanalysis, we present climate regimes that are favourable or unfavourable for solar energy applications. We show that the favourable climate regimes are emerging over much of Europe during spring and early summer for solar energy exploitation.
26 Jun 2024
Underestimation of Anaerobic Decomposition Rates in Sphagnum Litterbag Experiments by the Holocene Peatland Model Depends on Initial Leaching Losses
Henning Teickner, Edzer Pebesma, and Klaus-Holger Knorr
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1739, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1739, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for ESD (discussion: final response, 9 comments)
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The Holocene Peatland Model (HPM) is a widely used peatland model to understand and predict long-term peatland dynamics. Here, we test whether the HPM can predict Sphagnum litterbag decomposition rates from oxic to anoxic conditions. Our results indicate that decomposition rates change more gradually from oxic to anoxic conditions and may be underestimated under anoxic conditions, possibly because the effect of water table fluctuations on decomposition rates is not considered.
25 Jun 2024
A simple physical model for glacial cycles
Sergio Pérez-Montero, Jorge Alvarez-Solas, Jan Swierczek-Jereczek, Daniel Moreno-Parada, Marisa Montoya, and Alexander Robinson
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1842, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1842, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for ESD (discussion: final response, 13 comments)
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The climate of the last 3 Myr varies between cold and warm periods. Numerous independent mechanisms have been proposed to explain this, however no effort has been made to study their competing effects. Here we present a simple but physically motivated model that includes these mechanisms in a modular way. We find that the main trigger is the displacement of the lithosphere due to the ice thickness evolution, but reproducing the climate records additionally requires the natural darkening of ice.
05 Jun 2024
A multi-model analysis of the decadal prediction skill for the North Atlantic ocean heat content
Teresa Carmo-Costa, Roberto Bilbao, Jon Robson, Ana Teles-Machado, and Pablo Ortega
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1569, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1569, 2024
Revised manuscript under review for ESD (discussion: final response, 6 comments)
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Climate models can be used to skilfully predict decadal changes in North Atlantic ocean heat content. However, significant regional differences among these models reveal large uncertainties in the influence of external forcings. This study examines eight climate models to understand the differences in their predictive capacity for the North Atlantic, investigating the importance of external forcings and key model characteristics such as ocean stratification and the local atmospheric forcing.
29 May 2024
Carbon-climate feedback higher when assuming Michaelis-Menten kinetics of respiration
Christian Beer
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1504, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1504, 2024
Preprint under review for ESD (discussion: final response, 6 comments)
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Fauna and flora respires carbon dioxide into the atmosphere, which is a major carbon flux into the atmosphere. The underlying biochemical processes are complex, and we generalize them either assuming a first order chemical reaction of carbon and oxygen to carbon dioxide, or assuming enzymatic reactions. Here, we show that these assumptions lead to large differences in estimating the carbon-climate feedback until 2100 and the remaining carbon budget to keep warming below 2 degrees C.
08 May 2024
Resolving the Technosphere
Eric Galbraith, Abdullah-Al Faisal, Tanya Matitia, William Fajzel, Ian Hatton, Helmut Haberl, Fridolin Krausmann, and Dominik Wiedenhofer
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1133, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1133, 2024
Revised manuscript under review for ESD (discussion: final response, 6 comments)
Short summary
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The technosphere, including buildings, infrastructure and all other non-living human creations, has become a major part of the Earth system. Here we provide a refined definition of the technosphere, and an end-use classification aligned with the physical outcomes of human activities. We use these definitions to describe the composition and spatial distribution of technosphere mass, and discuss the exponential character of its growth since 1900, which presents a challenge for sustainability.
30 Apr 2024
Milankovitch Theory “as an Initial Value Problem”
Mikhail Verbitsky and Dmitry Volobuev
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1255, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1255, 2024
Preprint under review for ESD (discussion: open, 2 comments)
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The dynamics of ice sheets is defined by the advection of mass and temperature. Reduced mass influx makes advection timescale to become longer, which is equivalent to a longer system’s memory of its initial conditions. In this case the Milankovitch theory becomes an initial value problem. The dependence of the similarity parameter that governs initial-values sensitivity on poorly defined mass balance makes ice ages to be hardly predictable and disambiguation of paleo-records to be challenging.
30 Apr 2024
Spatiotemporal variation of growth-stage specific compound climate extremes for rice in South China: Evidence from concurrent and consecutive compound events
Ran Sun, Tao Ye, Yiqing Liu, Weihang Liu, and Shuo Chen
Earth Syst. Dynam. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2024-8, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2024-8, 2024
Manuscript not accepted for further review (discussion: closed, 7 comments)
Short summary
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We found increasing trend of compound hot-dry events for single-rice but decreasing trend of compound chilling-rainy events for late-rice. We also found that the occurrence and duration of concurrent CEs were negatively correlated with local temperature-moisture coupling. Temperature was the dominant factor influencing the change of compound hot-dry events. While for the change in compound chilling-rainy events, the effect of temperature is only slightly larger than that of moisture.
25 Apr 2024
Identifying the control cities of O3 Pollution using Complex networks
Zhi-Dan Zhao, Demei Xue, Haojun Sun, Weiping Wang, and Na Ying
Earth Syst. Dynam. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2024-4, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2024-4, 2024
Preprint under review for ESD (discussion: open, 1 comment)
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Understanding the dynamic characteristics of O3 pollution is crucial for the joint prevention and control of O3 pollution but remains a major challenge due to insufficient understanding of its driving cities. Here, using a complex network model, we identified the national O3 pollution driving nodes and their reliability. We also demonstrated their relationship with the threshold and distance. Our work has implications for developing collaborative control policies for O3 pollution areas.
19 Feb 2024
Bayesian analysis of early warning signals using a time-dependent model
Eirik Myrvoll-Nilsen, Luc Hallali, and Martin Rypdal
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-436, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-436, 2024
Preprint under review for ESD (discussion: final response, 4 comments)
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Before a climate component reaches a tipping point, there may be observable changes in its statistical properties. These are known as early warning signals and include increased fluctuation and correlation times. We present a Bayesian approach to detect these signals, using a model where the correlation parameter depends linearly on time for which the slope can be estimated directly from the data. The model is then applied to Dansgaard-Oeschger events using Greenland Ice core data.
11 Dec 2023
Tipping points in ocean and atmosphere circulations
Sina Loriani, Yevgeny Aksenov, David Armstrong McKay, Govindasamy Bala, Andreas Born, Cristiano M. Chiessi, Henk Dijkstra, Jonathan F. Donges, Sybren Drijfhout, Matthew H. England, Alexey V. Fedorov, Laura Jackson, Kai Kornhuber, Gabriele Messori, Francesco Pausata, Stefanie Rynders, Jean-Baptiste Salée, Bablu Sinha, Steven Sherwood, Didier Swingedouw, and Thejna Tharammal
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2589, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2589, 2023
Preprint under review for ESD (discussion: final response, 7 comments)
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In this work, we draw on paleoreords, observations and modelling studies to review tipping points in the ocean overturning circulations, monsoon systems and global atmospheric circulations. We find indications for tipping in the ocean overturning circulations and the West African monsoon, with potentially severe impacts on the Earth system and humans. Tipping in the other considered systems is considered conceivable but currently not sufficiently supported by evidence.
11 Dec 2023
Linkage of tropical glaciation to supercontinents: a thermodynamic closure model
Hsien-Wang Ou
Earth Syst. Dynam. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2023-32, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2023-32, 2023
Revised manuscript not accepted (discussion: closed, 4 comments)
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We postulate that a tropical supercontinent, by blocking the brighter sun, may cool the tropics to below the marking temperature of the glacial margin, enabling the tropical glaciation. Since this marking temperature is above the freezing point to counter the accumulation, glacial margin is abutting an open ocean, contrary to the snowball-earth hypothesis. The theory provides a unified account of faint-young-sun paradox, Precambrian tropical glaciations and glacio-epochs through Earth’s history.
28 Nov 2023
Positive tipping points for accelerating adoption of regenerative practices in African smallholder farming systems: What sustains adoption?
Antony Philip Emenyu, Thomas Pienkowski, Andrew M. Cunliffe, Timothy M. Lenton, and Tom Powell
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2531, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2531, 2023
Revised manuscript under review for ESD (discussion: final response, 4 comments)
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This paper explores what processes could boost adoption rates for regenerative agriculture programs in Africa and draws on insights from successful rapid scaling of TIST in east Africa. Found that the cultivation of reinforcing feedback processes that strengthened the social capital around adoption and elimination of barriers to carbon accreditation for RA projects to be key success factors and possible opportunities new and ongoing RA programs to boost their adoption rates.
23 Oct 2023
Tipping dynamics in packaging systems: How a bottle reuse system was established and then undone
Mila Kim-Chau Fiona Ong, Fenna Blomsma, and Timothy Michael Lenton
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2361, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2361, 2023
Revised manuscript under review for ESD (discussion: final response, 5 comments)
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We investigate the initially successful transition from regional bottle reuse for mineral water to a widespread bottle reuse system in Germany, its subsequent destabilisation, and what this teaches us about tipping dynamics in packaging systems. Our findings demonstrate opportunities to create an enabling environment for change, and the role of specific reinforcing feedback loops and interventions in accelerating or impeding sustainable transitions.
10 Oct 2023
The interaction of Solar Radiation Modification and Earth System Tipping Elements
Gideon Futerman, Mira Adhikari, Alistair Duffey, Yuanchao Fan, Peter Irvine, Jessica Gurevitch, and Claudia Wieners
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-1753, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-1753, 2023
Revised manuscript accepted for ESD (discussion: final response, 4 comments)
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This review assesses the interaction of Solar Radiation Modification (SRM), a technology to reduce the impacts of climate change by reflecting sunlight, and earth system tipping points. We find that SRM reduces the risk of hitting most of the tipping points that we studied relative to the same emission pathway although for some systems this is more complex. Uncertainties for almost all tipping elements studied were high, so we also lay out suggestions for future research.
27 Sep 2023
Gaia: Complex systems prediction for time to adapt to climate shocks
Allen G. Hunt, Muhammad Sahimi, Boris Faybishenko, Markus Egli, Zbigniew J. Kabala, Behzad Ghanbarian, and Fang Yu
Earth Syst. Dynam. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2023-21, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2023-21, 2023
Manuscript not accepted for further review (discussion: closed, 8 comments)
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Relative stability of Earth’s climate system is considered an emergent property of coupled ecosystems. We apply a spatio-temporal scaling relation for root growth to couple bacterial/fungal/vegetational response to climate crises triggered by land plant invasion and predict an absolute time scale to reach homeostasis. The predicted time is 33 % larger than required for the biosphere to emerge from associated Paleozoic ice ages. We propose a basis for understanding the biosphere and critical zone.
01 Sep 2023
Tipping cascades between conflict and cooperation in climate change
Jürgen Scheffran, Weisi Guo, Florian Krampe, and Uche Okpara
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-1766, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-1766, 2023
Revised manuscript under review for ESD (discussion: final response, 4 comments)
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To study tipping cascades in the climate-conflict nexus, a bi-stable tipping model analyses transitions between conflict and cooperation. The Lake Chad case demonstrates climate change as a risk multiplier combined with poor governance, lowering resilience and barriers of communities to conflict. Adaptive and anticipative governance can prevent tipping to violent conflict and induce positive tipping towards cooperation, through civil conflict transformation and environmental peacebuilding.
30 Aug 2023
Regionally optimized fire parameterizations using feed-forward neural networks
Yoo-Geun Ham, Seon-Ho Nam, and Jin-Soo Kim
Earth Syst. Dynam. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2023-26, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2023-26, 2023
Manuscript not accepted for further review (discussion: closed, 8 comments)
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Fires are inflicting substantial ecological and socio-economic impacts on a global scale. For the real-time monitoring the risk of fire incidents at an early stage, we developed a fire intensity estimation method based on the well-monitored meteorological variables. We utilized feed-forward neural networks (FFNNs) which uses four meteorological variables to estimate a fire radiative power. The estimation accuracy of FFNNs revealed a marked increase compared to a previous method.
25 Jul 2023
A global social activation model of enabling conditions for positive social tipping – the role of sea-level rise anticipation and climate change concern
E. Keith Smith, Marc Wiedermann, Jonathan F. Donges, Jobst Heitzig, and Ricarda Winkelmann
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-1622, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-1622, 2023
Revised manuscript accepted for ESD (discussion: final response, 16 comments)
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Social tipping dynamics have received recent attention as a potential mechanism for effective climate actions – yet how such tipping dynamics could unfold remains largely unquantified. We explore how social tipping processes can developed via enabling necessary conditions (exemplified by climate change concern) and increased perceptions of localized impacts (sea-level rise). The likelihood for social tipping varies regionally, mostly along areas with highest exposure to persistent risks.
14 Jul 2023
The risky middle of the road – probabilities of triggering climate tipping points and how they increase due to tipping points within the Earth’s carbon cycle
Jakob Emanuel Deutloff, Hermann Held, and Timothy Michael Lenton
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-1469, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-1469, 2023
Revised manuscript accepted for ESD (discussion: final response, 4 comments)
Short summary
Chief editor
Short summary
We investigate the probabilities of triggering climate tipping points under various emission scenarios and how they are altered by additional carbon emissions from tipping points within the Earth's carbon cycle. We find that even “middle of the road” emission scenarios are highly unsafe with regard to triggering climate tipping points. Under such scenarios, probabilities of triggering are increased substantially by carbon emissions from tipping points within the Earth's carbon cycle.
Chief editor
This paper shows that current climate policies risk triggering tipping points like permafrost thaw and rainforest loss. While these changes add some extra warming, human emissions remain the biggest driver. Lower emissions reduce the risk, but reaching tipping points is still possible.
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11 Jul 2023
Risks, Ethics and Justice in the governance of positive tipping points
Laura M. Pereira, Steven R. Smith, Lauren Gifford, Peter Newell, Ben Smith, Sebastian Villasante, Therezah Achieng, Azucena Castro, Sara M. Constantino, Ashish Ghadiali, Coleen Vogel, and Caroline Zimm
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-1454, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-1454, 2023
Revised manuscript accepted for ESD (discussion: final response, 4 comments)
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Earth system tipping points pose existential threats and so there is an urgent need to act. However, this imperative cannot increase risks nor perpetuate injustices. We argue that considerations of what needs to change, who is asked to change and where the impacts will be felt and by whom, are fundamental questions that need to be addressed in decision-making. Everyone has a role to play in ensuring that justice and equity are incorporated into every action towards a more sustainable future.
15 Jun 2023
The role of land-surface interactions for surface climate in the EC-Earth3 earth system model
Wilhelm May
Earth Syst. Dynam. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2023-13, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2023-13, 2023
Revised manuscript not accepted (discussion: closed, 4 comments)
Short summary
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Land-surface conditions have prominent effects on local and regional climate through the exchanges of energy, moisture and carbon dioxide with the atmosphere. Therefore, it is important that the relevant processes are simulated realistically. The land-surface component of the EC-Earth3 ESM is characterized by marked regional biases in various aspects of surface climate. The coupling with the atmosphere enhances the biases in surface climate, in particular for land-surface temperature.
08 Jun 2023
Temperature Trends, Climate Attribution and the Nonstationarity Question
Ross McKitrick, Timothy Vogelsang, and John Christy
Earth Syst. Dynam. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2023-11, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2023-11, 2023
Revised manuscript not accepted (discussion: closed, 4 comments)
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The climate econometrics field has shown that attribution of warming to anthropogenic forcings requires temperature data to have a property called “nonstationarity” whereas trend detection assumes the data are stationary. Detailed testing shows temperatures are best described as stationary deviations around a linear trend. This is not consistent with anthropogenic forcings being the dominant driver of observed trends over time in the empirical framework commonly used in climate econometrics.
06 Feb 2023
Causal interactions between ENSO and the North Tropical Atlantic
Thanh Le and Deg-Hyo Bae
Earth Syst. Dynam. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2023-1, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2023-1, 2023
Revised manuscript not accepted (discussion: closed, 4 comments)
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We examine the links between the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the North Tropical Atlantic mode (NTA) using outputs from model simulations and reanalysis data. Our results suggest robust effects of ENSO on NTA and provide insights on the unstable impacts of NTA on ENSO. Our results show that the models may underestimate the impacts of NTA on ENSO, implying that better representation of NTA variability and NTA-ENSO links in the models may improve the predictability of ENSO variations.
17 Aug 2022
Vb-cyclones and associated North-Western Mediterranean Sea state in regional coupled climate simulations: evaluation and projection
Praveen Kumar Pothapakula, Amelie Hoff, Anika Obermann-Hellhund, Timo Keber, and Bodo Ahrens
Earth Syst. Dynam. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2022-24, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2022-24, 2022
Preprint withdrawn (discussion: closed, 2 comments)
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The Vb-cyclones simulated with a coupled regional climate model with two different driving data sets are compared against each other in historical period, thereafter the future climate predictions were analyzed. The Vb-cyclones in two simulations agree well in terms of their occurrence, intensity and track in two simulations, though there are discrepancies in seasonal cycles and their process linking Mediterranean Sea in historical period. So significant changes were observed in the future.
29 Jul 2022
Classification of synoptic circulation patterns with a two-stage clustering algorithm using the structural similarity index metric (SSIM)
Kristina Winderlich, Clementine Dalelane, and Andreas Walter
Earth Syst. Dynam. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2022-29, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2022-29, 2022
Preprint withdrawn (discussion: closed, 9 comments)
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This paper presents a new classification method for synoptic circulation patterns and its application on ERA-Interim reanalysis data. The output fields of the CMIP6 models are assigned to the reanalysis-derived classes and a new quality index, built on the statistics between each model and the reference, is introduced to quantify the “quality” of the respective model. CMIP6 models are ranked according to the new quality score.
25 Jul 2022
Origins and suppression of bifurcation phenomena in lower-order monsoon models
S. Krishna Kumar and Ashwin K. Seshadri
Earth Syst. Dynam. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2022-30, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2022-30, 2022
Preprint withdrawn (discussion: closed, 4 comments)
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Abrupt seasonal onset of monsoon as well as abrupt changes in paleoclimatic records have sometimes been ascribed to bifurcations and characterized as tipping points. We describe a mechanism by which nonlinear lower-order monsoon models may not manifest bifurcations latent in their mathematical form. This contributes to resolving a long-standing contradiction between data/higher order models and lower-order monsoon models, regarding bifurcations explaining abrupt changes seen in monsoon.
24 Jan 2022
Subsea permafrost and associated methane hydrates: how long will they survive in the future?
Valentina V. Malakhova and Alexey V. Eliseev
Earth Syst. Dynam. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2021-99, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2021-99, 2022
Preprint withdrawn (discussion: closed, 4 comments)
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The methane from the subsea methane hydrates (SMH) is of a concern for enhancing climate changes. We performed simulations with a model for subsea sediments thermophysics driven by CO2- the Earth orbit parameters-induced climate change. We found that the subsea permafrost (SPF) and SMH typically survive during next several kyr at least. The CO2-induced warming may to enhance the pan-Arctic SPF loss severalfold during next 1 kyr but is less instrumental for the respective SMH loss.
03 Dec 2021
The Earth's climate lagged, recurrent and non-linear solar and lunar multi-millennial scale responses: An oceanic hypothesis, evidence, verifications and forecasts
Jorge Sánchez-Sesma
Earth Syst. Dynam. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2021-84, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2021-84, 2021
Revised manuscript not accepted (discussion: closed, 10 comments)
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This work model the Earth's climate in terms of solar and tidal variations, considering multi-millennia scale lagged responses associated with the oceanic transport mechanisms. Applications of this kind of models are proposed with consequent multi-millennia forecasts that account the lagged responses to solar forcing. This kind of multi-millennia modelling helps to better detect and attribute relatively higher frequencies of climate variability (multi-decadal and centennial oscillations).
30 Nov 2021
A missing link in the carbon cycle: phytoplankton light absorption
Rémy Asselot, Frank Lunkeit, Philip Holden, and Inga Hense
Earth Syst. Dynam. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2021-91, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2021-91, 2021
Revised manuscript not accepted (discussion: closed, 6 comments)
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Phytoplankton absorbing light can influence the climate system but its future effect on the climate is still unclear. We use a climate model to investigate the role of phytoplankton light absorption under global warming. We find out that the effect of phytoplankton light absorption is smaller under a high greenhouse gas emissions compared to reduced and intermediate greenhouse gas emissions. Additionally, we show that phytoplankton light absorption is an important mechanism for the carbon cycle.
26 Nov 2021
Does feedback temperature dependence influence the slow mode of the climate response?
Tim Rohrschneider, Jonah Bloch-Johnson, and Maria Rugenstein
Earth Syst. Dynam. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2021-86, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2021-86, 2021
Preprint withdrawn (discussion: closed, 4 comments)
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We question whether the timescale of long-term climate change is independent of temperature or forcing and the evolution of time. The timescale of long-term climate change depends on feedback temperature dependence and the evolution of time.
25 Nov 2021
Earth System Sensitivity: a Feedback perspective
Peter O. Passenier
Earth Syst. Dynam. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2021-78, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2021-78, 2021
Revised manuscript not accepted (discussion: closed, 4 comments)
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In the field of climate-change research a lot of effort is devoted to the ‘narrowing down’ of uncertainties in the estimation of Equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS). The present study explores possible consequences of this narrowing down of ECS for the long-term Earth system sensitivity (ESS), taking into account ‘slow’ feedbacks due to the cryosphere response (permafrost melting and ice-sheet disintegration) to a warming world.
03 Nov 2021
ESD Ideas: A Global Warming Scaling Law
Mikhail Verbitsky and Michael Mann
Earth Syst. Dynam. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2021-87, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2021-87, 2021
Revised manuscript not accepted (discussion: closed, 21 comments)
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In this study, we highlight a component of global warming variability, a scaling law that is based purely on fundamental physical properties of the climate system.
20 Oct 2021
Dominant influence of Pacific climate modes on global observed and reanalysis cloud cover fields
Petru Cosmin Vaideanu, Mihai Dima, Monica Ionita, and Mirela Voiculescu
Earth Syst. Dynam. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2021-75, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2021-75, 2021
Revised manuscript not accepted (discussion: closed, 4 comments)
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Observing clouds and their properties is not straightforward, however, these are important for reducing climate models uncertainties. Ground-based observations are spatially limited while satellite data are accompanied by various artefacts. In this paper, we use corrected observational and state-of-the-art reanalysis cloud data to show that the recent evolution of total cloud cover on a global scale is linked to the Eastern Pacific and the Central Pacific El Niño–Southern Oscillation.
22 Jul 2021
Climate as a complex, self-regulating system
Roger N. Jones and James H. Ricketts
Earth Syst. Dynam. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2021-62, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2021-62, 2021
Publication in ESD not foreseen (discussion: closed, 4 comments)
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When the ocean and atmosphere are coupled in climate models, the Pacific Ocean heat engine and climate network emerge. Thermodynamic forcing of heat imbalance produces a staircase in warming which is normally interpreted as climate variability. This is limited by the energy constraints of equator-to-pole heat transport and external forcing. The result is a homeostatic, self-regulating complex system that occupies steady-state regimes, the most basic being the decadal climate regime.
22 Jul 2021
The Pacific Ocean heat engine
Roger N. Jones and James H. Ricketts
Earth Syst. Dynam. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2021-61, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2021-61, 2021
Revised manuscript not accepted (discussion: closed, 4 comments)
Short summary
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The Pacific Ocean heat engine regulates global climate, linking the cooler eastern Central Pacific with the warmer western Pacific, moving heat east to west. The heat engine maintains constant climate conditions. From pre-industrial climate to the mid-20th century, climate was in free mode, a more relaxed state. Later in the 20th century, as heat accumulated in the climate system, it switched into forced mode. Energy imbalances cause regime shifts, producing a staircase in global temperature.
19 Nov 2020
Studying the large-scale effect of leaf thermoregulation using an
Earth system model
Marvin Heidkamp, Felix Ament, Philipp de Vrese, and Andreas Chlond
Earth Syst. Dynam. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2020-75, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2020-75, 2020
Publication in ESD not foreseen (discussion: closed, 4 comments)
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This study deals with leaf thermoregulation, a process that describes the ability of leaves to buffer against ambient temperatures. In the past, this effect has been investigated at the leaf scale, but not on the canopy or global scale. Here we try to close this scientific gap by studying the large-scale effect of leaf thermoregulation using the Max Planck Institute's Earth system model. We believe that our study provides valuable insights for modelers and observers.
14 Nov 2020
ESD Ideas: Long-period tidal forcing in geophysics – application to
ENSO, QBO, and Chandler wobble
Paul R. Pukite
Earth Syst. Dynam. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2020-74, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2020-74, 2020
Manuscript not accepted for further review (discussion: closed, 13 comments)
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Important equatorial climate phenomena such as QBO and ENSO (El Nino) have never been adequately explained as deterministic processes – that is exhibiting a behavior that may be predictable. This paper suggests that QBO, ENSO, along with the geophysical behavior known as the Chandler wobble may share a common origin of lunar and solar tidal forcing. Through analytical approximations of fluid dynamics and detailed time-series analysis, matching quantitative models of these behaviors can be shown.
11 Nov 2020
Spectral nudging in the Tropics
Breogán Gómez and Gonzalo Miguez-Macho
Earth Syst. Dynam. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2020-71, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2020-71, 2020
Publication in ESD not foreseen (discussion: closed, 3 comments)
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Spectral nudging imposes the large scale fields from a global model into a regional model. We study which are the best scales on a tropical setting and how long is needed to run the model before it is in balance with the nudging force. Optimal results are obtained when nudging is applied in the Rossby Radius scales for at least 72 h to 96 h. We also propose a new method where a different scale is used for each nudged variable, which bests other configurations when applied in 4 hurricanes cases.
13 Aug 2020
Energetic regimes of the global economy – past, present and future
Andrew Jarvis and Carey King
Earth Syst. Dynam. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2020-59, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2020-59, 2020
Publication in ESD not foreseen (discussion: closed, 11 comments)
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Orthodox thinking views the economy as being largely free from the laws of nature, a misconception that underpins the environmental crises we now face. Here we show that, like many natural systems, the way the economy uses energy suggests it attempts maximise the rate it performs useful physical work. It achieves this by adjusting it's efficiency. If true, it would mean that expecting efficiency improvements to rescue us from climate change, as is currently the case, represent a false hope.
03 Aug 2020
ESD Reviews: Evidence of multiple inconsistencies between representations of terrestrial and marine ecosystems in Earth System Models
Félix Pellerin, Philipp Porada, and Inga Hense
Earth Syst. Dynam. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2020-55, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2020-55, 2020
Revised manuscript not accepted (discussion: closed, 4 comments)
Short summary
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While several biological processes are similar among terrestrial and marine ecosystems, their representation in Earth System Models may differ. By comparing the terrestrial and marine modules of 17 Earth System Models, we found multiple evidences of unjustified differences in processes representation. These inconsistencies may lead to wrong predictions about the role of biosphere in the climate system and skew our perception of the relative influence of each ecosystem on climate.
29 Jul 2020
A regional evaluation of the influence of climate change on long term
trends in chlorophyll-a in large Italian lakes from satellite data
Gary Free, Mariano Bresciani, Monica Pinardi, Nicola Ghirardi, Giulia Luciani, Rossana Caroni, and Claudia Giardino
Earth Syst. Dynam. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2020-56, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2020-56, 2020
Revised manuscript not accepted (discussion: closed, 4 comments)
08 Jul 2020
Simulating Lake Tanganyika's hydrodynamics under a changing climate
Kevin Sterckx, Philippe Delandmeter, Jonathan Lambrechts, Eric Deleersnijder, and Wim Thiery
Earth Syst. Dynam. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2020-36, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2020-36, 2020
Revised manuscript not accepted (discussion: closed, 4 comments)
Short summary
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This work covers multiple 3D simulations of the hydrodynamics of Lake Tanganyika, covering the inter-seasonal variations and the evolution linked to climate change. The research was done with COSMO-CLM2 data, which was used to run the SLIM 3D Lake Tanganyika model. The main results explain how this stratified lake can still maintain a certain mixing between the different layers, but how this would come to an end due to climate change.
25 May 2020
Seasonal weather regimes in the North Atlantic region: towards new seasonality?
Florentin Breton, Mathieu Vrac, Pascal Yiou, Pradeebane Vaittinada Ayar, and Aglaé Jézéquel
Earth Syst. Dynam. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2020-26, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2020-26, 2020
Revised manuscript not accepted (discussion: closed, 4 comments)
Short summary
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We investigate North Atlantic weather seasonality over 1979–2100 by classifying year-round fields of 500 hPa geopotential height from one reanalysis dataset and 12 climate models. Generally, models have seasonal structures similar to the reanalyses. Historical winter (summer) conditions decrease (increase), due to uniform Z500 increase (i.e. uniform warming). However, relative to the increasing Z500 seasonal cycle, future seasonality (spatial patterns, seasonal cycle) appears almost stationary.
21 Apr 2020
ESD Reviews: mechanisms, evidence, and impacts of climate tipping elements
Seaver Wang and Zeke Hausfather
Earth Syst. Dynam. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2020-16, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2020-16, 2020
Manuscript not accepted for further review (discussion: closed, 16 comments)
Short summary
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Climate tipping elements are generating increasing attention within the earth science community and the global public. Given their importance for informing future risks and optimal societal actions, promoting broader understanding of these systems can greatly benefit discussions in climate science. Reviewing the body of scientific literature on important climate tipping elements, we present the state of current research on each, discuss knowledge gaps, and explain projected impacts.
17 Jan 2020
The Standardized Vertical Velocity Anomaly Index (SVVAI): Using Atmospheric Dynamical Anomalies to Simulate and Predict Meteorological Droughts
Zhenchen Liu, Hai He, Zhiyong Wu, Guihua Lu, and Hao Yin
Earth Syst. Dynam. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2019-81, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2019-81, 2020
Manuscript not accepted for further review (discussion: closed, 6 comments)
Short summary
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The paper attempt to quantitatively link vertical wind velocity (an atmospheric dynamical variable) to droughts, which try to solve hydrological communities' concerns using meteorological theories and approaches. Performance over simulation and prediction of droughts over China is promising. Achievements herein can help further explore antecedent drought-inducing signals of atmospheric/oceanic anomalies, which may provide a fundamental approach for drought prediction with long lead times.
04 Dec 2019
Yardangs and Dunes: Minimum- and Maximum-Dissipation Aeolian Landforms
Ralph D. Lorenz
Earth Syst. Dynam. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2019-73, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2019-73, 2019
Publication in ESD not foreseen (discussion: closed, 5 comments)
Short summary
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There is a paradox between systems that maximize the production of work or entropy (e.g. those with many degrees of freedom like the climate) and those that minimize it (constrained ones, like a heated rod). How free is free enough? Desert landforms provide an instructive analogy – sand dunes are simultaneously built and destroyed, and thus are
freeand maximize sand transport or work. Yardangs form only by erosion, are more constrained, and emerge with streamlined shape, minimizing work.
29 Nov 2019
The Pacific Ocean heat engine: global climate's regulator
Roger N. Jones and James H. Ricketts
Earth Syst. Dynam. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2019-72, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2019-72, 2019
Publication in ESD not foreseen (discussion: closed, 6 comments)
Short summary
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The tropical Pacific Ocean maintains a self-regulating heat storage and release system that distributes heat to the top of the atmosphere and poles, acting like a heat engine with gears. It is normally in steady state but when overloaded by increasing heat, it shifts gear. The oceans, then the atmosphere warm in a series of regionally and globally synchronous step changes that shift climate. This results in infrequent but rapid warming episodes that rapidly change the risk of climate extremes.
11 Nov 2019
ESD Ideas: It is not an Anthropocene; it is really the Technocene: names matter in decision making under Planetary Crisis
Oliver López-Corona and Gustavo Magallanes-Guijón
Earth Syst. Dynam. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2019-49, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2019-49, 2019
Manuscript not accepted for further review (discussion: closed, 6 comments)
Short summary
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What the Technocene idea makes clear is that as modern human societies exhibit an enormous coupling with technology and for the first time in human history that technology has the potential to modify the very core processes that drive Earth System dynamics, then Technology most be considered as a new dimension of analysis in the study of Earth system in its co-evolution with life and particularly human beings.
15 Oct 2019
Spatial Signature of Solar Forcing over the North Atlantic Summer Climate in
the Past Millennium
Maria Pyrina, Eduardo Moreno-Chamarro, Sebastian Wagner, and Eduardo Zorita
Earth Syst. Dynam. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2019-50, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2019-50, 2019
Revised manuscript not accepted (discussion: closed, 4 comments)
01 Oct 2019
ESD Ideas: Structures dominate the functioning of Earth systems,
but their dynamics are not well represented
Axel Kleidon, Erwin Zehe, and Ralf Loritz
Earth Syst. Dynam. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2019-52, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2019-52, 2019
Manuscript not accepted for further review (discussion: closed, 4 comments)
Short summary
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Many fluxes in Earth systems are not homogeneously distributed across space, but occur highly concentrated in structures, such as turbulent eddies, river networks, vascular networks of plants, or human-made infrastructures. Yet, the highly-organized nature of these fluxes is typically only described at a rudimentary level, if at all. We propose that it requires a novel approach to describe these structures that focuses on the work done to build and maintain these structures, and the feedbacks.
05 Sep 2019
Detecting breakpoints in global temperature
Junbo Duan, Lanling Zhao, Qing Wang, and Pei Li
Earth Syst. Dynam. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2019-45, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2019-45, 2019
Preprint withdrawn (discussion: closed, 2 comments)
Short summary
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The global warming is slowing down? There is a continuous debate of whether a
hiatusoccurred in the turn of this century. By using our proposed model, sparse representation with piecewise polynomials which can segment and fit curves automatically, results on five global mean surface temperature records suggest that the allegation of occurrence of
hiatuslacks statistical evidence, and hence reinforce that the global warming is going on.
08 Aug 2019
Estimates of climatic influence on the carbon cycle
Ian Enting and Nathan Clisby
Earth Syst. Dynam. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2019-41, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2019-41, 2019
Preprint withdrawn (discussion: closed, 9 comments)
Short summary
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The influence of climate on the carbon cycle is estimated by relating CO2 from ice-core data to reconstructions of temperature over the last 1000 years. This relation is important for quantifying the strength of the CO2-climate feedback loop. Extending previous analyses into the 20th century confirmed the influence of heterogeneity in climate variation. This enabled interpretation of features in the ice-core CO2 record in the first half of the 20th century that have previously been to explain.
27 May 2019
Weakening anomalies of East Asian Summer Precipitation Influenced by the Tibetan Plateau Warming Amplification
Mei Liang, Jianjun Xu, Liguang Wu, and Xiangde Xu
Earth Syst. Dynam. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2019-19, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2019-19, 2019
Manuscript not accepted for further review (discussion: closed, 6 comments)
Short summary
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We found that Tibetan Plateau (TP) warming is consistently the important contributor to the variation of East Asian precipitation in summer from 1979 to 2016, but the relationship between them weakens after the amplification of TP warming. The southern flood–northern drought pattern is weak compared with when the TP warming trend has been removed.
03 Apr 2019
Tropical and mid-latitude teleconnections interacting with the Indian summer monsoon rainfall: A Theory-Guided Causal Effect Network approach
Giorgia Di Capua, Marlene Kretschmer, Reik V. Donner, Bart van den Hurk, Ramesh Vellore, Raghavan Krishnan, and Dim Coumou
Earth Syst. Dynam. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2019-11, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2019-11, 2019
Manuscript not accepted for further review (discussion: closed, 4 comments)
Short summary
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Both drivers from the mid-latitudes and from the tropical regions have been proposed to influence the Indian summer monsoon (ISM) subseasonal variability. To understand the relative importance of tropical and mid-latitude drivers, we apply recently developed causal discovery techniques to disentangle the causal relationships among these processes. Our results show that there is indeed a two-way interaction between the mid-latitude circulation and ISM rainfall over central India.
28 Feb 2019
A climatological interpretation of precipitation-based δ18O across Siberia and Central Asia
Tao Wang, Ting-Yong LI, Jian Zhang, Yao Wu, Chao-Jun Chen, Ran Huang, Jun-Yun Li, and Si-Ya Xiao
Earth Syst. Dynam. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2019-7, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2019-7, 2019
Preprint withdrawn (discussion: closed, 5 comments)
Short summary
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Permafrost in Eurasian continent is extremely sensitive to global climate change. We used the data of 15 stations from the Global Network of Isotope in Precipitation (GNIP) and proposed that the δ18OP was correlated with local temperature on the monthly and seasonal timescales. However, on the annual timescale, except for
temperature effect, δ18OP also reflects the change of water vapor source dominated by Eurasian Zonal Circulation (EZC) and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO).
15 Feb 2019
ESD Reviews: Thermodynamic optimality in Earth sciences. The missing constraints in modeling Earth system dynamics?
Martijn Westhoff, Axel Kleidon, Stan Schymanski, Benjamin Dewals, Femke Nijsse, Maik Renner, Henk Dijkstra, Hisashi Ozawa, Hubert Savenije, Han Dolman, Antoon Meesters, and Erwin Zehe
Earth Syst. Dynam. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2019-6, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2019-6, 2019
Publication in ESD not foreseen (discussion: closed, 4 comments)
Short summary
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Even models relying on physical laws have parameters that need to be measured or estimated. Thermodynamic optimality principles potentially offer a way to reduce the number of estimated parameters by stating that a system evolves to an optimum state. These principles have been applied successfully within the Earth system, but it is often unclear what to optimize and how. In this review paper we identify commonalities between different successful applications as well as some doubtful applications.
30 Nov 2018
Current rapid global temperature rise linked to falling SO2 emissions
Nick E. B. Cowern
Earth Syst. Dynam. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2018-83, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2018-83, 2018
Publication in ESD not foreseen (discussion: closed, 2 comments)
Short summary
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This paper shows that recent accelerated global warming is the beginning of an approximately 0.5 °C warming transition, resulting – ironically – from policy measures that have sharply reduced global pollution linked to sulfur dioxide emissions. The transition is superimposed on the steady warming trend from rising greenhouse gases, and could bring forward the time when global warming reaches 1.5 °C to the late 2020s, significantly sooner than estimated in the recent IPCC climate change report.
23 May 2018
Critical Assessment of Geoengineering Strategies using Response
Theory
Tamás Bódai, Valerio Lucarini, and Frank Lunkeit
Earth Syst. Dynam. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2018-30, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2018-30, 2018
Revised manuscript not accepted (discussion: closed, 6 comments)
Short summary
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We establish a framework to conduct a scenario analysis of the best possible outcomes under geoengineering. The scenarios may consist of scenarios of greenhouse gas emission the choice of the quantity that we want to keep under control. The motivation is the desire of an efficient way of assessing the side-effects of geoengineering, concerning the unwanted and uncontrolled changes. Countering CO2 emission by modulating insolation, we find considerable changes in local temperatures or rainfall.
08 May 2018
Only the instantaneous global warming potential is consistent with
honest and responsible greenhouse gas accounting
Peter Nightingale
Earth Syst. Dynam. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2018-22, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2018-22, 2018
Revised manuscript not accepted (discussion: closed, 10 comments)
Short summary
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This paper discusses flawed use of the global warming potential, a metric accepted by the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change to assess the impact on global warming of, among others, combustion of methane, natural gas. The paper identifies problems of the generally used delayed-impact version of the metric: (1) it produces misleading results; (2) it is inconsistent with meaningful tracking of greenhouse gas emissions; and (3) it is incompatible with the precautionary principle.
02 May 2018
Dynamics of finite causal processes
Kalman Ziha
Earth Syst. Dynam. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2018-20, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2018-20, 2018
Manuscript not accepted for further review (discussion: closed, 6 comments)
Short summary
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Finiteness is the fate of the world we know by experience. Many earth and environmental phenomena are finite causal processes of complex interactions and feedbacks. Finite causal processes with exhaustible causal capacities relate the observable past and the imaginable future separated by the present moment. Concept of finiteness has a mathematical formulation that can discover and estimate finiteness of observable environmental processes such as the climate change and melting of ice sheets.
29 Mar 2018
Uncertainties in projections of the Baltic Sea ecosystem driven by an ensemble of global climate models
Sofia Saraiva, H. E. Markus Meier, Helén Andersson, Anders Höglund, Christian Dieterich, Robinson Hordoir, and Kari Eilola
Earth Syst. Dynam. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2018-16, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2018-16, 2018
Revised manuscript not accepted (discussion: closed, 4 comments)
Short summary
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Uncertainties are estimated in Baltic Sea climate projections by performing scenarios combining 4 Global Climate Models, 2 future gas emissions (RCP4.5, RCP8.5) and 3 nutrient load scenarios. Results on primary production, nitrogen fixation, and hypoxic areas show that uncertainties caused by the nutrients loads are greater than uncertainties due to GCMs and RCPs. In all scenarios, nutrient load abatement strategy, Baltic Sea Action Plan, will lead to an improvement in the environmental state.
15 Jan 2018
Vegetation dynamics and responses to climate anomalies in East Africa
John Musau, Sopan Patil, Justin Sheffield, and Michael Marshall
Earth Syst. Dynam. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2017-123, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2017-123, 2018
Manuscript not accepted for further review (discussion: closed, 4 comments)
Short summary
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Three decades LAI data indicates diverse and often non-stationary vegetation changes in East Africa. Significant increase in vegetation variance is indicated in most of the region which is positively correlated to the variance of climate anomalies. The vegetation resistance to short-term drought and its memory effect are mainly positive and significant with noteworthy variations across landcover types. Further analysis is required to separated human-induced and climate-caused vegetation changes.
18 Dec 2017
Climatic impact of Arctic Ocean methane hydrate
dissociation in the 21st-century
Sunil Vadakkepuliyambatta, Ragnhild B. Skeie, Gunnar Myhre, Stig B. Dalsøren, Anna Silyakova, Norbert Schmidbauer, Cathrine Lund Myhre, and Jürgen Mienert
Earth Syst. Dynam. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2017-110, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2017-110, 2017
Preprint retracted (discussion: closed, 4 comments)
Short summary
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Release of methane, one of the major greenhouse gases, from melting hydrates has been proposed as a mechanism that accelerated global warming in the past. We focus on Arctic Ocean warming as a robust case study for accelerated melting of hydrates, assessing the impact of Arctic methane release on global air temperatures during the next century. Contrary to popular belief, it is shown that methane emissions from melting hydrates from the Arctic seafloor is not a major driver of global warming.
06 Dec 2017
The Role of Bioenergy and Carbon Capture and Storage (BECCS)
in the Case of Delayed Climate Policy – Insights from Cost-Risk
Analysis
Jana Mintenig, Mohammad M. Khabbazan, and Hermann Held
Earth Syst. Dynam. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2017-117, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2017-117, 2017
Revised manuscript not accepted (discussion: closed, 4 comments)
06 Nov 2017
Can Limits to Growth in the Renewable Energy Sector be Inferred by Curve Fitting to Historical Data?
Kristoffer Rypdal
Earth Syst. Dynam. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2017-93, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2017-93, 2017
Revised manuscript not accepted (discussion: closed, 8 comments)
Short summary
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The paper examines the assertion that limits to growth in the renewable energy sector can be inferred statistically from historical data for installed capacity of solar and wind power. This claim has been made in the peer reviewed scientific literature and has been subject to considerable media coverage. It is demonstrated here that rational selection between an exponential and a logistic growth model cannot be made from existing data for the historical evolution of global installed capacity.
04 Jul 2017
The sensitivity of the large-scale atmosphere circulation to changes in surface temperature gradients in the Northern Hemisphere
Sonja Molnos, Stefan Petri, Jascha Lehmann, Erik Peukert, and Dim Coumou
Earth Syst. Dynam. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2017-65, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2017-65, 2017
Manuscript not accepted for further review (discussion: closed, 6 comments)
27 Apr 2017
Evaporative fractionation of H218O in the polar ocean and the invisibility of large changes of ice volume and sea level in the Saalian δ18O proxy records
Robert G. Johnson
Earth Syst. Dynam. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2017-20, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2017-20, 2017
Preprint withdrawn (discussion: closed, 1 comment)
Short summary
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Beginning about 150,000 yrs ago glacial ice blocked rivers flowing into the polar ocean and this prevented freezing of sea ice there. Evaporation of polar water then concentrated water containing H218O. In the proxy isotope record, this concealed a major world deglaciation that is contrary to the theory of direct control of glaciation by solar melting. This research began 26 yrs ago with a study of the fossil high sea level reefs on Barbados caused by that unexpected deglaciation.
12 Apr 2017
An Evaluation and Implementation of the Regional Coupled
Ice-Ocean Model of the Baltic Sea
Jaromir Jakacki and Sebastian Meler
Earth Syst. Dynam. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2017-35, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2017-35, 2017
Manuscript not accepted for further review (discussion: closed, 4 comments)
Short summary
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A three dimensional, regional coupled ice-ocean model based on the open-source Community Earth System Model has been developed and implemented for the Baltic Sea. The ice model results were validated against the radar and satellite data, and the method of validation based on probability was introduced. In the last two decades satellite and model results show an increase in the ice extent over the whole Baltic Sea, which is an evidence of a negative trend in air temperature in recent decades.
20 Mar 2017
Combining temperature rate and level perspectives in emission
metrics
Borgar Aamaas, Terje K. Berntsen, Jan S. Fuglestvedt, and Glen P. Peters
Earth Syst. Dynam. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2017-25, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2017-25, 2017
Manuscript not accepted for further review (discussion: closed, 3 comments)
22 Feb 2017
Past and future influence of climate change on spatially heterogeneous vegetation activity in China
Jiangbo Gao, Kewei Jiao, Shaohong Wu, Danyang Ma, Dongsheng Zhao, Yunhe Yin, and Erfu Dai
Earth Syst. Dynam. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2017-13, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2017-13, 2017
Preprint withdrawn (discussion: closed, 1 comment)
Short summary
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We found the precipitation and temperature dominated vegetation activities were located in the north and south of China, respectively. Responding patterns to precipitation variation will move southward due to the hydrothermal mediation. In future, vegetation in north China may adapt to arid environment, but it will be repressed in south China. This work,extending time scales from past to future, can promote the understanding of climate–vegetation correlation, a frontier in global change research.
31 Jan 2017
Inverse Gaussian distribution of wave set-up heights along a shoreline with complicated geometry
Tarmo Soomere and Katri Pindsoo
Earth Syst. Dynam. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2016-76, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2016-76, 2017
Revised manuscript not accepted (discussion: closed, 4 comments)
Short summary
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Wave-induced set-up is a nonlinear phenomenon that results in a rise in the mean water level at the waterline and may contribute to the formation of coastal flooding. We study the shape of probability distribution of the wave set-up heights near Tallinn in the Baltic Sea. Resulted distribution deviates from the ones that usually reflect the wave heights, this signals that extreme set-up events are more probable that it could be expected from the probability of occurrence of severe seas.
17 Jan 2017
Coupled Climate–Economy–Biosphere (CoCEB) model – Part 1: Abatement efficacy of low-carbon technologies
Keroboto B. Z. Ogutu, Fabio D'Andrea, Michael Ghil, and Charles Nyandwi
Earth Syst. Dynam. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2016-64, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2016-64, 2017
Preprint retracted (discussion: closed, 5 comments)
Short summary
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The CoCEB model is used to evaluate hypotheses on the long-term effect of investment in emission abatement, and on the comparative efficacy of different approaches to abatement. While many studies in the literature treat abatement costs as an unproductive loss of income, we show that mitigation costs do slow down economic growth over the next few decades, but only up to the mid-21st century or even earlier; growth reduction is compensated later on by having avoided climate negative impacts.
25 Nov 2016
Seasonal forecast verification and application in times of change
Yoav Levi and Itzhak Carmona
Earth Syst. Dynam. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2016-60, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2016-60, 2016
Manuscript not accepted for further review (discussion: closed, 5 comments)
Short summary
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Seasonal forecast is a scientific challenge drawing increase attention of both the scientific community and the decision makers. The manuscript deals with evaluation of seasonal forecasts skill taking into account the rapid changes in both climate and socio-economic development. An attempt to give a solution to overcome rapid changes may provide local stakeholders with a new way of using seasonal forecast.
16 Nov 2016
Multi-method assessment of reservoir effects on hydrological droughts in
an arid region
Sally Rangecroft, Anne F. Van Loon, Héctor Maureira, Koen Verbist, and David M. Hannah
Earth Syst. Dynam. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2016-57, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2016-57, 2016
Preprint withdrawn (discussion: closed, 4 comments)
Short summary
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This paper on anthropogenic droughts looks at the interactions of human activity and "natural" processes. Using a case study of the introduction of a reservoir in a Chilean river basin and a new methodology, we established the most effective way forward for quantifying human activities on hydrological drought: the "threshold level" method with an "undisturbed" time period as the threshold. This will increase our understanding on how human activities are impacting the hydrological system.
27 Oct 2016
Addressing the assumption of stationarityin statistical bias correction of temperature
Manolis G. Grillakis, Aristeidis G. Koutroulis, Ioannis N. Daliakopoulos, and Ioannis K. Tsanis
Earth Syst. Dynam. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2016-52, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2016-52, 2016
Manuscript not accepted for further review (discussion: closed, 4 comments)
Short summary
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We present a methodology that adjusts the systematic errors of climate model simulated temperature towards observations. The method considers the separation of the stationary and the non-stationary components in order to apply adjustment only to the former. The results of a calibration-validation test show the good performance of the method. Additionally, results of the methodology on temperature projections, illustrate the preservation of the long-term statistics on the adjusted data.
25 Oct 2016
Identifying global patterns of stochasticity and nonlinearity in the Earth System
Fernando Arizmendi, Marcelo Barreiro, and Cristina Masoller
Earth Syst. Dynam. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2016-47, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2016-47, 2016
Manuscript not accepted for further review (discussion: closed, 7 comments)
Short summary
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We analyze the dynamical and statistical properties of two surface air temperature (SAT) reanalysis datasets. For each SAT time-series we analyze i) the distance between the lagged SAT time series and the insolation, and ii) the Shannon entropy computed from the probability distribution function (pdf) of SAT values. We show that these simple measures uncover meaningful long-range coherent spatial structures that emerge from the local properties of SAT time-series.
07 Sep 2016
The Earth’s climate system recurrent & multi-scale lagged responses: empirical law, evidence, consequent solar explanation of recent CO2 increases & preliminary analysis
Jorge Sánchez-Sesma
Earth Syst. Dynam. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2016-38, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2016-38, 2016
Manuscript not accepted for further review (discussion: closed, 6 comments)
Short summary
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The lagged responses of the Earth’s climate system, as part of cosmic-solar-terrestrial processes, are empirically modeled with a consequent estimation of a lag of ~1600-yr for the recently detected ~9500-yr scale solar recurrent patterns. Several examples of this kind of lag, both in forcing (Volcanoes & CO2), tropical climate and ocean processes throughout the Holocene, were analyzed. The results suggest that the recent CO2 increase can be considered as a lagged response to solar activity.
01 Aug 2016
Regional climate change projections for the Barents
region
Andreas Dobler, Jan Erik Haugen, and Rasmus Emil Benestad
Earth Syst. Dynam. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2016-27, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2016-27, 2016
Revised manuscript has not been submitted (discussion: closed, 6 comments)
19 Apr 2016
Identifying global patterns of stochasticity and nonlinearity in the Earth System
Fernando Arizmendi, Marcelo Barreiro, and Cristina Masoller
Earth Syst. Dynam. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2016-12, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2016-12, 2016
Manuscript not accepted for further review (discussion: closed, 5 comments)
Short summary
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Understanding how surface air temperature (SAT) is controlled by the incoming solar radiation is a fundamental and challenging problem in climate dynamics. Here we analyze the response of monthly-averaged SAT to solar forcing, and we also quantify the level of randomness of SAT variability. We find coherent spatial patterns which can be interpreted in terms of known climate phenomena.
27 Nov 2015
Early warning signals in complex ecosystems
I. S. Weaver and J. G. Dyke
Earth Syst. Dynam. Discuss., 6, 2507–2542, https://doi.org/10.5194/esdd-6-2507-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/esdd-6-2507-2015, 2015
Revised manuscript not accepted (discussion: closed, 4 comments)
Short summary
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Many parts of the Earth systems undergo rapid changes from one state to another. A disastrous example being a vivacious lake becoming opaque; an algae-dominated state. We model a generic complex ecosystem, where the coupling between life and important environmental variables drives transitions. We find even small numbers of environmental variables to produce complicated networks of states, and that transitions are preceded by warning signals, a result supporting contemporary empirical research.
17 Nov 2015
Characterization of ocean biogeochemical processes: a generalized total least-squares estimator of the Redfield ratios
V. Guglielmi, C. Goyet, and F. Touratier
Earth Syst. Dynam. Discuss., 6, 2383–2416, https://doi.org/10.5194/esdd-6-2383-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/esdd-6-2383-2015, 2015
Manuscript not accepted for further review (discussion: closed, 4 comments)
Short summary
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The chemical composition of the global ocean is governed by biogeochemical processes. These processes interact with each other so that the concentrations of carbon dioxide, oxygen, nitrate and phosphate vary in constant proportions, referred to as the Redfield ratios. We build here the Generalized Total Least-Squares estimator of these ratios. The tests performed on the Atlantic Ocean highlight a variability of the Redfield ratios.
09 Nov 2015
Severe summer heat waves over Georgia: trends, patterns and driving forces
I. Keggenhoff, M. Elizbarashvili, and L. King
Earth Syst. Dynam. Discuss., 6, 2273–2322, https://doi.org/10.5194/esdd-6-2273-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/esdd-6-2273-2015, 2015
Preprint withdrawn (discussion: closed, 2 comments)
Short summary
Short summary
Georgia experienced a rising number of severe summer heat waves between 1961 and 2010. Heat wave patterns and their relationships to surface and atmospheric predictors reveal a blocking anticyclone over the southern Ural, which attracts warm air from the South, enhances heating processes over Georgia and shifts large-scale wind streams over Eurasia northwards. Moreover, pronounced precipitation and soil moisture deficiency amplifies heat wave severity and persistence.
29 Oct 2015
Impacts of climate change on growth period and planting boundaries of winter wheat in China under RCP4.5 scenario
Z. Sun, S. F. Jia, A. F. Lv, K. J. Yang, J. Svensson, and Y. C. Gao
Earth Syst. Dynam. Discuss., 6, 2181–2210, https://doi.org/10.5194/esdd-6-2181-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/esdd-6-2181-2015, 2015
Manuscript not accepted for further review (discussion: closed, 4 comments)
28 Oct 2015
Importance of open-water ice growth and ice concentration evolution: a study based on FESOM-ECHAM6
X. Shi and G. Lohmann
Earth Syst. Dynam. Discuss., 6, 2137–2179, https://doi.org/10.5194/esdd-6-2137-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/esdd-6-2137-2015, 2015
Revised manuscript not accepted (discussion: closed, 5 comments)
Short summary
Short summary
Our work is to investigate to what degree the open water ice formation affects the ice and ocean properties.
Our results show a positive feedback among the Arctic sea ice, the AMOC, and the surface air temperature in the Arctic.
The sea ice transport affects the freshwater budget in regions of deep water formation.
A link between the climate of Northern Hemisphere continents and the lead closing rate during ice formation period is also shown by the model.
20 Oct 2015
A simple model of the anthropogenically forced CO2 cycle
W. Weber, H.-J. Lüdecke, and C. O. Weiss
Earth Syst. Dynam. Discuss., 6, 2043–2062, https://doi.org/10.5194/esdd-6-2043-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/esdd-6-2043-2015, 2015
Revised manuscript not accepted (discussion: closed, 10 comments)
07 Sep 2015
The eigenvalue problem for ice-shelf vibrations: comparison of a full 3-D model with the thin plate approximation
Y. V. Konovalov
Earth Syst. Dynam. Discuss., 6, 1605–1633, https://doi.org/10.5194/esdd-6-1605-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/esdd-6-1605-2015, 2015
Revised manuscript not accepted (discussion: closed, 5 comments)
07 May 2015
Changing trends and abrupt features of extreme temperature in mainland China during 1960 to 2010
S. Fang, Y. Qi, G. Han, and G. Zhou
Earth Syst. Dynam. Discuss., 6, 979–1000, https://doi.org/10.5194/esdd-6-979-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/esdd-6-979-2015, 2015
Revised manuscript not accepted (discussion: closed, 6 comments)
20 Apr 2015
Coupled Climate–Economy–Biosphere (CoCEB) model – Part 2: Deforestation control and investment in carbon capture and storage technologies
K. B. Z. Ogutu, F. D'Andrea, M. Ghil, C. Nyandwi, M. M. Manene, and J. N. Muthama
Earth Syst. Dynam. Discuss., 6, 865–906, https://doi.org/10.5194/esdd-6-865-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/esdd-6-865-2015, 2015
Preprint withdrawn (discussion: closed, 4 comments)
Short summary
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We extend the global climate-economy-biosphere (CoCEB) model by adding a biomass equation and the related exchanges of CO2 and investigate the relationship between the effects of using carbon capture and storage (CCS) and deforestation control, and the economy growth rate. This endeavor reduces the impacts of climate change and positively affects economy growth. Also, the results for CCS remained sensitive to the formulation of CCS costs while those for deforestation control were less sensitive.
20 Apr 2015
Coupled Climate–Economy–Biosphere (CoCEB) model – Part 1: Abatement share and investment in low-carbon technologies
K. B. Z. Ogutu, F. D'Andrea, M. Ghil, C. Nyandwi, M. M. Manene, and J. N. Muthama
Earth Syst. Dynam. Discuss., 6, 819–863, https://doi.org/10.5194/esdd-6-819-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/esdd-6-819-2015, 2015
Preprint retracted (discussion: closed, 3 comments)
Short summary
Short summary
The Coupled Climate-Economy-Biosphere (CoCEB) model takes an integrated assessment approach to simulating global change. While many integrated assessment models treat abatement costs merely as an unproductive loss of income, we consider abatement activities also as an investment in overall energy efficiency of the economy and decrease of overall carbon intensity of the energy system. The paper shows that these efforts help to abate climate change and lead to positive effects in economic growth.
02 Mar 2015
Inferring global wind energetics from a simple Earth system model based on the principle of maximum entropy production
S. Karkar and D. Paillard
Earth Syst. Dynam. Discuss., 6, 407–433, https://doi.org/10.5194/esdd-6-407-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/esdd-6-407-2015, 2015
Revised manuscript not accepted (discussion: closed, 4 comments)
Short summary
Short summary
This paper proposes a method to infer global wind energetics of the atmosphere. It uses the energy fluxes obtained with a climate box-model previously proposed by Herbert et al., based on the maximization of entropy production (MEP) principle, to compute annual mean winds. Specific details of the circulation are not recovered, as the atmosphere is represented with only one layer, but global figures are well captured.
09 Feb 2015
Appraising the capability of a land biosphere model as a tool in modelling land surface interactions: results from its validation at selected European ecosystems
M. R. North, G. P. Petropoulos, G. Ireland, and J. P. McCalmont
Earth Syst. Dynam. Discuss., 6, 217–265, https://doi.org/10.5194/esdd-6-217-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/esdd-6-217-2015, 2015
Revised manuscript not accepted (discussion: closed, 6 comments)
Short summary
Short summary
This study evaluated the ability of the SimSphere SVAT model in estimating key parameters characterising land surface interactions. Results confirmed the correspondence of the model structure to real conditions for which it had been parameterised, evidencing its ability to reproduce outputs akin to the in situ data. To our knowledge this is the first comprehensive validation of the model. Findings are very important since use of the model is growing globally as educational and research tool.
05 Dec 2014
Optimizing cropland cover for stable food production in Sub-Saharan Africa using simulated yield and Modern Portfolio Theory
P. Bodin, S. Olin, T. A. M. Pugh, and A. Arneth
Earth Syst. Dynam. Discuss., 5, 1571–1606, https://doi.org/10.5194/esdd-5-1571-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/esdd-5-1571-2014, 2014
Revised manuscript has not been submitted (discussion: closed, 6 comments)
Short summary
Short summary
Food security is defined as stable access to food of good nutritional quality. In regions where food security is highly dependent on local production it is thus of importance to produce not only enough calories but also to minimize variation in yield. This trade-off is investigated here using simulated crop yield and by selecting relative distributions of crops. The results show a large potential to either increase food production or to decrease its variance by applying optimized crop selection.
30 Sep 2014
The "Business-As-Usual" growth of global primary energy use and carbon dioxide emissions – historical trends and near-term forecasts
A. Jarvis and C. N. Hewitt
Earth Syst. Dynam. Discuss., 5, 1143–1158, https://doi.org/10.5194/esdd-5-1143-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/esdd-5-1143-2014, 2014
Revised manuscript has not been submitted (discussion: closed, 5 comments)
29 Aug 2014
Differences in carbon cycle and temperature projections from emission- and concentration-driven earth system model simulations
P. Shao, X. Zeng, and X. Zeng
Earth Syst. Dynam. Discuss., 5, 991–1012, https://doi.org/10.5194/esdd-5-991-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/esdd-5-991-2014, 2014
Revised manuscript not accepted (discussion: closed, 8 comments)
27 Jun 2014
Temporal variations in atmospheric CO2 on Rishiri Island in 2006–2013: responses of the interannual variation in amplitude to climate and the terrestrial sink in East Asia
C. Zhu and H. Yoshikawa-Inoue
Earth Syst. Dynam. Discuss., 5, 809–848, https://doi.org/10.5194/esdd-5-809-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/esdd-5-809-2014, 2014
Preprint withdrawn (discussion: closed, 2 comments)
10 Jun 2014
Definitions of climate and climate change under varying external conditions
C. Werndl
Earth Syst. Dynam. Discuss., 5, 683–719, https://doi.org/10.5194/esdd-5-683-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/esdd-5-683-2014, 2014
Revised manuscript not accepted (discussion: closed, 4 comments)
26 May 2014
The impact of land-use change on the sensitivity of terrestrial productivity to precipitation variability: a modelling approach
L. Batlle-Bayer, B. J. J. M. van den Hurk, C. Müller, and J. van Minnen
Earth Syst. Dynam. Discuss., 5, 585–616, https://doi.org/10.5194/esdd-5-585-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/esdd-5-585-2014, 2014
Revised manuscript has not been submitted (discussion: closed, 2 comments)
20 May 2014
Past and future ice age initiation: the role of an intrinsic deep-ocean millennial oscillation
R. G. Johnson
Earth Syst. Dynam. Discuss., 5, 545–584, https://doi.org/10.5194/esdd-5-545-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/esdd-5-545-2014, 2014
Preprint withdrawn (discussion: closed, 4 comments)
20 Mar 2014
Statistical significance of rising and oscillatory trends in global ocean and land temperature in the past 160 years
L. Østvand, K. Rypdal, and M. Rypdal
Earth Syst. Dynam. Discuss., 5, 327–362, https://doi.org/10.5194/esdd-5-327-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/esdd-5-327-2014, 2014
Revised manuscript not accepted (discussion: closed, 6 comments)
02 Jan 2014
Historical and future carbon emissions from croplands
S. J. Smith
Earth Syst. Dynam. Discuss., 5, 1–27, https://doi.org/10.5194/esdd-5-1-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/esdd-5-1-2014, 2014
Revised manuscript has not been submitted (discussion: closed, 4 comments)
08 Nov 2013
Problems with solar, volcanic, and ENSO attribution using multiple linear regression methods on temperatures from 1979–2012
T. Masters
Earth Syst. Dynam. Discuss., 4, 1065–1090, https://doi.org/10.5194/esdd-4-1065-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/esdd-4-1065-2013, 2013
Revised manuscript not accepted (discussion: closed, 5 comments)
03 May 2013
Agnotology: learning from mistakes
R. E. Benestad, H. O. Hygen, R. van Dorland, J. Cook, and D. Nuccitelli
Earth Syst. Dynam. Discuss., 4, 451–505, https://doi.org/10.5194/esdd-4-451-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/esdd-4-451-2013, 2013
Revised manuscript not accepted (discussion: closed, 33 comments)
18 Apr 2013
Trend of standardized precipitation index during Indian summer monsoon season in agroclimatic zones of India
S. Jha, V. K. Sehgal, R. Raghava, and M. Sinha
Earth Syst. Dynam. Discuss., 4, 429–449, https://doi.org/10.5194/esdd-4-429-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/esdd-4-429-2013, 2013
Preprint withdrawn (discussion: closed, 2 comments)
21 Jan 2013
Radon monitoring as a possible indicator of tectonic events
V. I. Outkin, I. A. Kozlova, A. K. Yurkov, P. K. Dutta, O. P. Mishra, and M. K. Naskar
Earth Syst. Dynam. Discuss., 4, 93–107, https://doi.org/10.5194/esdd-4-93-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/esdd-4-93-2013, 2013
Revised manuscript not accepted (discussion: closed, 15 comments)
09 Jan 2013
Estimation of the climate feedback parameter by using radiative fluxes from CERES EBAF
P. Björnbom
Earth Syst. Dynam. Discuss., 4, 25–47, https://doi.org/10.5194/esdd-4-25-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/esdd-4-25-2013, 2013
Revised manuscript has not been submitted (discussion: closed, 12 comments)
19 Sep 2012
A GIS based study on bank erosion by the river Brahmaputra around Kaziranga National Park, Assam, India
J. N. Sarma and S. Acharjee
Earth Syst. Dynam. Discuss., 3, 1085–1106, https://doi.org/10.5194/esdd-3-1085-2012, https://doi.org/10.5194/esdd-3-1085-2012, 2012
Preprint withdrawn (discussion: closed, 5 comments)
03 Sep 2012
Toward a classification of the Central Pacific El Niño
M. Pascolini-Campbell, D. Zanchettin, O. Bothe, C. Timmreck, D. Matei, J. H. Jungclaus, and H.-F. Graf
Earth Syst. Dynam. Discuss., 3, 979–998, https://doi.org/10.5194/esdd-3-979-2012, https://doi.org/10.5194/esdd-3-979-2012, 2012
Revised manuscript has not been submitted (discussion: closed, 4 comments)
16 Aug 2012
Minor effect of meltwater on the ocean circulation during deglaciation
G. Lohmann, K. Grosfeld, M. Butzin, P. Huybrechts, and C. Zweck
Earth Syst. Dynam. Discuss., 3, 801–825, https://doi.org/10.5194/esdd-3-801-2012, https://doi.org/10.5194/esdd-3-801-2012, 2012
Revised manuscript has not been submitted (discussion: closed, 5 comments)
25 Jun 2012
Estimated impact of global population growth on future wilderness extent
E. Dumont
Earth Syst. Dynam. Discuss., 3, 433–452, https://doi.org/10.5194/esdd-3-433-2012, https://doi.org/10.5194/esdd-3-433-2012, 2012
Revised manuscript has not been submitted (discussion: closed, 6 comments)
02 May 2012
Power-law behavior in millennium climate simulations
S. V. Henriksson, P. Räisänen, J. Silen, H. Järvinen, and A. Laaksonen
Earth Syst. Dynam. Discuss., 3, 391–416, https://doi.org/10.5194/esdd-3-391-2012, https://doi.org/10.5194/esdd-3-391-2012, 2012
Revised manuscript not accepted (discussion: closed, 9 comments)
04 Apr 2012
Mathematical modelling of positive carbon-climate feedback: permafrost lake methane emission case
I. A. Sudakov and S. A. Vakulenko
Earth Syst. Dynam. Discuss., 3, 235–257, https://doi.org/10.5194/esdd-3-235-2012, https://doi.org/10.5194/esdd-3-235-2012, 2012
Revised manuscript not accepted (discussion: closed, 5 comments)
02 Apr 2012
Regional feedbacks under changing climate and land-use conditions
L. Batlle Bayer, B. J. J. M. van den Hurk, B. J. Strengers, and J. G. van Minnen
Earth Syst. Dynam. Discuss., 3, 201–234, https://doi.org/10.5194/esdd-3-201-2012, https://doi.org/10.5194/esdd-3-201-2012, 2012
Revised manuscript not accepted (discussion: closed, 4 comments)
05 Mar 2012
Iterative land proxy based reconstruction of SST for the simulation of terrestrial Holocene climate
K. Haberkorn, C. Lemmen, R. Blender, and K. Fraedrich
Earth Syst. Dynam. Discuss., 3, 149–200, https://doi.org/10.5194/esdd-3-149-2012, https://doi.org/10.5194/esdd-3-149-2012, 2012
Revised manuscript has not been submitted (discussion: closed, 4 comments)
28 Feb 2012
Comment on "Climate sensitivity in the Anthropocene" by Previdi et al. (2011)
S. E. Schwartz
Earth Syst. Dynam. Discuss., 3, 143–147, https://doi.org/10.5194/esdd-3-143-2012, https://doi.org/10.5194/esdd-3-143-2012, 2012
Preprint withdrawn (discussion: closed, 1 comment)
06 Dec 2011
Rolling stones; fast weathering of olivine in shallow seas for cost-effective CO2 capture and mitigation of global warming and ocean acidification
R. D. Schuiling and P. L. de Boer
Earth Syst. Dynam. Discuss., 2, 551–568, https://doi.org/10.5194/esdd-2-551-2011, https://doi.org/10.5194/esdd-2-551-2011, 2011
Revised manuscript not accepted (discussion: closed, 4 comments)
15 Sep 2011
Climate sensitivity in the Anthropocene
M. Previdi, B. G. Liepert, D. T Peteet, J. Hansen, D. J Beerling, A. J. Broccoli, S. Frolking, J. N Galloway, M. Heimann, C. Le Quéré, S. Levitus, and V. Ramaswamy
Earth Syst. Dynam. Discuss., 2, 531–550, https://doi.org/10.5194/esdd-2-531-2011, https://doi.org/10.5194/esdd-2-531-2011, 2011
Revised manuscript not accepted (discussion: closed, 4 comments)
22 Mar 2011
A simple metabolic model of glacial-interglacial energy supply to the upper ocean
J. L. Pelegrí, R. Olivella, and A. García-Olivares
Earth Syst. Dynam. Discuss., 2, 271–313, https://doi.org/10.5194/esdd-2-271-2011, https://doi.org/10.5194/esdd-2-271-2011, 2011
Preprint withdrawn (discussion: closed, 7 comments)
07 Mar 2011
Climate change, in the framework of the constructal law
M. Clausse, F. Meunier, A. H. Reis, and A. Bejan
Earth Syst. Dynam. Discuss., 2, 241–270, https://doi.org/10.5194/esdd-2-241-2011, https://doi.org/10.5194/esdd-2-241-2011, 2011
Revised manuscript has not been submitted (discussion: closed, 4 comments)
03 Mar 2011
Geologic constraints on earth system sensitivity to CO2 during the Cretaceous and early Paleogene
D. L. Royer, M. Pagani, and D. J. Beerling
Earth Syst. Dynam. Discuss., 2, 211–240, https://doi.org/10.5194/esdd-2-211-2011, https://doi.org/10.5194/esdd-2-211-2011, 2011
Revised manuscript not accepted (discussion: closed, 11 comments)
25 Jan 2011
Spectral solar irradiance and its entropic effect on Earth's climate
W. Wu, Y. Liu, and G. Wen
Earth Syst. Dynam. Discuss., 2, 45–70, https://doi.org/10.5194/esdd-2-45-2011, https://doi.org/10.5194/esdd-2-45-2011, 2011
Revised manuscript not accepted (discussion: closed, 11 comments)
05 May 2010
Climatic and ecological future of the Amazon: likelihood and causes of change
B. Cook, N. Zeng, and J.-H. Yoon
Earth Syst. Dynam. Discuss., 1, 63–101, https://doi.org/10.5194/esdd-1-63-2010, https://doi.org/10.5194/esdd-1-63-2010, 2010
Revised manuscript not accepted (discussion: closed, 4 comments)
13 Apr 2010
Analyzing the carbon dynamics in north western Portugal: calibration and application of Forest-BGC
M. A. Rodrigues, D. M. Lopes, S. M. Leite, and V. M. Tabuada
Earth Syst. Dynam. Discuss., 1, 41–62, https://doi.org/10.5194/esdd-1-41-2010, https://doi.org/10.5194/esdd-1-41-2010, 2010
Revised manuscript not accepted (discussion: closed, 4 comments)